Comment by swatcoder | Hacker News Reader

Comment by swatcoder | Hacker News Reader

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The "devaluation" they mention is just the correction against the absurd ZIRP bump, that lured would-be doctors and lawyers into tech jobs at FAANG and FAANG-alike firms with the promise of upper middle class lifestyles for trivially weaving together API calls and jockeying JIRA tickets. You didn't have to spend years more in grad school, you didn't have to be a diligent engineer. You just had to had to have a knack for standardized tests (Leetcode) and the time to grid some prep.

The compensation and hiring for that kind of inexpert work were completely out of sync with anything sustainable but held up for almost a decade because money was cheap. Now, money is held much more tightly and we stumbled into a tech that can cheaply regurgitate a lot of so the trivial inexpert work, meaning the bottom fell out of these untenable, overpaid jobs.

You and I may not be effected, having charted a different path through the industry and built some kind of professional career foundation, but these kids who were (irresponsibly) promised an easy upper middle class life are still real people with real life plans, who are now finding themselves in a deeply disappointing and disorienting situation. They didn't believe the correction would come, let alone so suddenly, and now they don't know how they're supposed to get themselves back on track for the luxury lifestyle they thought they legitimately earned.

While that is part of the equation it's not at all that simple. If the average business owner wants a custom piece of software for their workflow how are they getting it now? For decades the answer would have been new hires, agencies, consultants, and freelancers. It didn't matter that most software boiled down to a simple CRUD backend and a flashy frontend. There was still a need for developers to create every piece of software.

Now AI makes it unbelievably easy to make those simple but bespoke software packages. The business owner can boot up Lovable and get something that is good enough. The non-software folk generally aren't scrutinizing the software they use. It doesn't matter if the backend is spaghetti code or if there are bugs here and there. If it works well enough then they're happy.

In my opinion that's the unfortunate truth of AI software development. It's dirt cheap, fast, and good enough for most people. Computer's couldn't write software before and now they can. Obviously that is real devaluation, right?

When I first earned money for coding (circa 20 years ago) it was small e-commerce shop. Today nobody does them, because there's woocomerce, shopify, FB marketplace. All dirt cheap and fast.

It isn't devaluation. It's good - it freed a lot of people to work on more ambitious things.

That might happen, but it hasn't yet.

So far, the tools help many programmers write simple code more quickly.

For technically adept professionals who are not programmers, though, we still haven't seen anything really break through the ceiling consistently encountered by previous low-code/no-code tools like FoxPro, Access, Excel, VBA, IFTTT, Zapier, Salesforce etc.

The LLM-based tools for this market work differently than the comparable tools that preceded them over the last 40 years, in that they have a much richer vocabulary of output, but the ceiling that all of these tools encountered in the last has been a human one: most non-programmers don't know how to describe what they need with sufficient detail for anything much beyond a fragile, narrow toy.

Maybe GPT-8 or Gemini 6 or whatever will somehow finally be able to shatter this ceiling, and somebody will make finally make a no-code software builder that devours the market for custom/domain software. But that hasn't happened yet and it's at least as easy to be skeptical as it is to be convinced.

I'm fairly certain that it's happening right now. There is no threshold that LLMs need to "break through" to see adoption. The number of non-technical using them to write software is growing every day.

I was working freelance through late 2023 - mid 2025 and the shift seemed quite obvious to me. Other freelancers, agency managers, etc that I talked to could see it too. The volume of clients, and their expectations, is changing very rapidly in that space.

I don't believe companies can reliably tell expert and non-expert developers apart, to sort them so efficiently to play out like you say.

The companies that can will remain and the companies that can't will perish. Not necessarily quickly nor gracefully, but the market stops all bucks.

You are assuming no government intervention or anti-competitive measures.

Neither has been true for a really long time.

If the market is allowed to behave like one*

I have a ton of faith that Apple, Google, and Microsoft will not perish. I'll also observe their software quality is not universally stellar.

Nailed it. It's a pendulum and we're swinging back to baseline. We just finished our last big swing (zirp, post COVID dev glut) and are now in full free fall.

I love this post. It really encapsulates a lot of what my take on the situation is as well. It has just been so blatantly obvious that a lot of people have a very protectionist mindset surrounding AI, and a legitimate fear that they are going to be replaced by it.

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