This is based on HSBC's model, which assumes some incredible numbers, such as: > user numbers on an S-curve that by 2030 reaches 3bn, “equivalent to 44 per cent of the world’s adult population” ex China.

Unfounded statements (outside of language tasks, fwiw), such as: >LLM subscriptions will become “as ubiquitous and useful as Microsoft 365”, HSBC says.

As well as this bold claim about OAI's potential to double the conversion rate: >It models that by 2030, 10 per cent of OpenAI users will be paying customers, versus an estimated 5 per cent currently.

Does not include a major player in its market share analysis at all: >Google is excluded entirely

And, still, it suggests that: > OpenAI is expected to still be subsidising its users well into next decade

Fascinating.