Endurance going down is hardly a surprise given that the feature size has gone down too. The same goes for logic and DRAM memory.
I suspect that 2035 years time, hardware from 2010 will work, while that from 2020 will be less reliable.
I suspect that 2035 years time, hardware from 2010 will work, while that from 2020 will be less reliable.
CRTs from 1994 and 2002 still going strong. LCD tvs from 2012 and 2022 just went kaput for no reason.
Old hardware rocks.
Most likely bad capacitors. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacitor_plague may have passed, but electrolytic capacitors are still the major life-limiting component in electronics.
They still degrade with time, but in a very predictable way.
That makes it possible to build a version of your design with all capacitors '50 year aged' and check it still works.
Sadly no engineering firm I know does this, despite it being very cheap and easy to do.
https://www.badcaps.net/forum/troubleshooting-hardware-devic...
The only MLC I use today are Samsungs best industrial drives and they work sort of... but no promises. And SanDisc SD cards that if you buy the cheapest ones last a surprising amount of time. 32GB lasted 11-12 years for me. Now I mostly install 500GB-1TB ones (recently = only been running for 2-3 years) after installing some 200-400GB ones that work still after 7 years.
As a counter anecdote, I have a lot of SSDs from the late 2010s that are still going strong, but I lost some early SSD drives to mysterious and unexpected failures (not near the wear-out level).
For logic and DRAM the biggest factors are how far they're being pushed with voltage and heat, which is a thing that trends back and forth over the years. So I could see that go either way.