The standardization of an obviously weaker option than more established ones is difficult to explain with security reasons, so the default assumption should be that there are insecurity reasons.
The standardization of an obviously weaker option than more established ones is difficult to explain with security reasons, so the default assumption should be that there are insecurity reasons.
I disagree that ML-KEM is "obviously weaker". In some ways, lattice-based cryptography has stronger hardness foundations than RSA and EC (specifically, average -> worst case reductions).
ML-KEM and EC are definitely complementary, and I would probably only deploy hybrids in the near future, but I don't begrudge others who wish to do pure ML-KEM.
I have no knowledge of whether Kyber at this point is vulnerable given whatever private cryptanalysis the NSA definitely has done on it, but if Kyber is adopted now, it will definitely be in use 2 decades from now, and it's hard to believe that it won't be vulnerable/broken then (even with only publicly available information).
Lots of algorithms were broken, but so what? Things like Rainbow and SIKE are not at all based on the hardness of solving lattice problems.
Can you elaborate on the standard of scrutiny that you believe AES and RSA (which were standardized at two very different maturation points in applied cryptography) met that hasn't been applied to the NIST PQ process?