China is already catching up. They have a desktop-sized 14nm EUV machine, and Xiami is setting up a 3nm manufacturing line, both entirely with local tech. Thanks USA for the export ban.
Sure of course, just like COMAC vs Airbus/Boeing, BYD vs Western EVs etc.
But this is a bit different IMHO.
First there's still a lot of catching-up to do.
And second are they going to be able to gain sufficient marketshare in the Western market ? I am thinking here, both in terms of displacing ASML and in terms of Western companies being willing to depend on Chinese tech for such critical activities.
There's a whole hierarchy of products and services that benefit from this. At any level that there is a ban/preference to not use Chinese products it translates to a lower price for the same technology, which feeds into the domestic market for dependent tech.
Nobody buys their chips? They build data centers and sell computation as service. That does not sell enough? Domestic R&D now has an edge, creating momentum for medicine, agriculture, consumer products, weapons.
You can ban a small country for a long time, or a large country for a small time, but not large for long
Who falls for this crap? An ASML EUV machine costs over $100 million and is delivered in dozens of shipping containers, taking up 2 floors in a fab.
You're going to need really extraordinary evidence that the PRC has a "desktop sized EUV machine" if you want us to believe you.
This is the company/machine: http://lumi-universe.com/?list_27/84.html
You can check the dimensions there, max 80cm. This is only the EUV light source, not an entire wafer fab.
When we say "EUV machine" in the semiconductor context, it's pretty unambiguous that we're talking about a lithography machine using EUV and that can do, at least, ~120 300 mm wafers per hour.
As another comment explained, that machine you linked to is nothing like what we mean by "EUV machine", it's not even attempting to be a lithography tool.
At first I thought you were being willingly misleading but your wording suggests you're not, so I suggest binging Asianometry on YouTube if you'd like to get up to speed on the semi industry.