Looking like 2028-2030 but it's a moving target.
Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup, I guess it's going to be after flying cars.
Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup, I guess it's going to be after flying cars.
I don’t see any reason to believe that “AGI office workers” will be ready to go by 2030. All signs right now are pointing to a looming plateau in their capabilities.
Those things are not the same kind of vaporware.
Also, if you compare with 50 years ago, AGI has also (better than) halved the interval experts are commonly predicting since then.
(Of course the experts could turn out to be hilariously wrong, for fusion or AI or both. I just don't think your comparison is anything like apples-to-apples.)
Latest LLM's have already been declining in performance. It's not a plateau and it's not looming.
We don't know what the hell we are doing. Adding more training data and parameters only degrades LLMs after a certain threshold.
That's so funny. Regular people can't hahndle regular cars. Self-driving cars barely handle 2 dimensional space within very specific confines and rules, in good weather. Existing airspace is congested to the point of being problematic in most metro areas around the world.
"Flying cars" might be replacing some private heliopters, maybe. But they aren't going mainstream any time soon.
Does the flying car need to also be street legal on the ground? Does it just not have to look too much like a helicopter?
https://gizmodo.com/official-air-taxi-provider-of-the-2028-o...