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Comment by RyJones | Hacker News Reader

I've been to Kyiv five times to deliver aid via help99.co, and I've spent many, many hours with Europeans driving trucks from Tallinn to Kyiv.

The people volunteering and driving know Europe is at war. They all say nobody else where they live realizes this.

It's frustrating.

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In my eyes it's more so that we don't care in that sense. My friend group is mostly just keeping in mind that they might have to dip to another country/continent at some point, maybe, unlikely though.

I'm pretty sure everyone I know would rather get imprisoned than go die in the mud to protect property they don't own, on the orders of a government that doesn't care about the same things they care about.

When we talk about it, it always boils down to a discussion on how to best desert/escape at different stages.

If the relationship with America deteriorates, which countries do you think will accept European refugees? Your friends may have to stay and fight not out of patriotism, but necessity. In a total-war scenario, even prisoners will find themselves contributing to thr war effort.

Since europeans are quite wealthy, many will be happy to accept them (as long as they still have money and qualifications).

But leaving all moral questions aside, where to go?

South america might turn into a war zone as well. Africa partly is already. Asia similar.

New Zealand sounds good, but even Peter Thiel found out, that money will get you only so far in buying a safe haven.

So personally I would opt for fixing the problems in europe. And am on it within my abilities. But .. with limits. I do not trust my politicians either and I am multilingual and traveled the world a lot. So in the end I would also rather take my family and leave, then being ordered to go fight in a war with half working equipment, because corruption and proud incompetence prevented preparation. (Many in the german military for instance hold the opinion, that they don't need to learn from the incompetent ukrainians, because they are all fighting wrong)

Luckily for whole Europe russia is very incompetent at doing anything serious, and complex projects like war are as serious as it gets. They routinely fail at logistics even now, corruption and nepotism is how puttin' built his whole empire, you don't suddenly get competent people at key positions of power just because it would make sense.

So whatever happens (apart from nuclear holocaust everywhere around the world) will be so slow we will have time to react. Already biggest arming of whole european continent since WWII is happening, and any bad news is pushing more money and focus into building more and more.

I know it sounds gloomy, but only if you have your head too close to the screens daily. Worse had come and gone than incompetent russians.

"I know it sounds gloomy, but only if you have your head too close to the screens daily. Worse had come and gone than incompetent russians."

Depends where you live I suppose. The baltic states are rightfully worried and take it a bit more serious.

And yes, russia on its own is not that dangerous to whole Europe. But russia in combination with north korean soldiers and supported by china .. and some european states that switch sides (Hungary, Serbia, Bosnia, ..), that would be dangerous. Lot's of things can happen. Also the EU can transform into an evil empire if we don't watch out. So no, I am not too worried about immediate war, but the traction right now is bad.

I don’t fully understand that bit about the EU turning evil. Care to elaborate?

Italy has already a Mussolini (who invented fascism) admiring government. Biggest opposition in france is pretty right wing. The german right wing opposition is pretty strong, ... etc.

Was your point that europe is immune to fascism and imperialism somehow?

We all have relatives all over the place, many have multiple passports/citizenships, most are well educated and/or make good money, most speak 3+ languages.. It'll work out. Countries take in refugees with much different cultures and lower education in the hopes of adding to their workforce. Someone will gladly take us.

I'm guessing in the worst case South America/AU/NZ/JP/UAE/Canada would be the goals.

The only real risk I see is essentially waiting too long and getting detained right as they begin to close off the borders for people of fighting age.

We are not at war. No bombs are falling in our cities. Our children are not being drafted and coming back in coffins. No one is bombing our ships and railways, so we have plenty of food on the table. If you think we are at war you have no idea what you’re talking about.

That is not the only kind of war. Russia has totally pwned the USA in the realm of information.

> No one is bombing our ships and railways

Uh, nuh https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-pm-says-two-resp...

EU got itself a Cuba

too bad that Cuba is right on its own border :)

So literally just like Cuba? The distance between US and Cuba is like 150km, if you're in Donetsk you can't even leave Donetsk Oblast if you travel 150km, and the shortest distance you can take from Ukraine<>Russia to closest EU/NATO member would be something like 600km if you don't take shortcuts via Belarus.

For all intents and purposes, Ukraine's border with Russia is way further away (like magnitude) from EU/NATO than US<>Russia (who are neighbors) or US<>Cuba (who are also neighbors).

Romania shares a border with Ukraine and is a member of both NATO and the EU.

Indeed, and how far would you wager it is between the border of Ukraine<>Romania and Ukraine<>Russia, at the shortest point? I'd wager around a lot longer than US<>Cuba.

I imagine the shortest path Russia->Ukraine->EU Members Romania/Hungary/Slovakia/Poland is far shorter than the shortest path Russia->Cuba->Any US State or territory.

Both Cuba and Russia are literal neighbors to the US, it doesn't get closer than that. Cuba is like 150km from the coast of Florida, and Russia is even closer than that to the US!

You're just randomly creating new positions to argue about because why? There is no factual way in which whatever point you are trying to make holds true re. Russia/Cuba to the US is less than Russia/Ukraine to the EU & NATO.

Kaliningrad literally shares borders with Poland and Lithuania. 0 km is the smallest distance possible. Russia and Ukraine both border EU and NATO countries.

Russia shares borders with Norway, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland which are NATO.

What an absurd argument. If Ukraine falls, the Russians will marshal Ukrainian manpower and resources against the EU.

> What an absurd argument

What argument did I even make? Are you saying it's absurd that Russia's border to Ukraine is further away to the closest EU/NATO member than Cuba is to the US? Because if so, I think you need to open up a world map.

The idea that the size of Ukraine and the distance to Russia’s border through Ukraine diminishes the Russian threat. For two reasons:

1. Russia aims to either capture Ukraine outright or exert influence over it, which puts eastern EU states at grave risk. Note that Belarus, a Russian vassal, already borders the EU and was used by the Russians to launch the Ukraine invasion.

2. Russia already borders — and menaces - the EU in the Baltics.

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