Hacker News Reader

Comment by jaredklewis | Hacker News Reader

I mean that I know of first hand, just the US and Japan. "Possible" being a low bar that just means that I've seen it at least once.

I don't think data with all of those factors (household income, number of earners per household, gender of the earners, home ownership, and number of children) exists for any country. Do you have data like that for 1960s America or is your argument based on extrapolations from watching Leave it to Beaver?

But if we abstract your hypothesis slightly to: fertility is lower now than in 1960 because people are less financially secure now than they were in 1960, I don't think the data we have supports this.

View on HN

I have seen it all across the EU. Is pretty doable (granted, you have a University title). But you can absolutely buy a home and have a couple of children which will have absolute all they need.

Yea because the average Joe totally has a university title. However in Germany a lot of poor people have many children while a lot of academics have less [0]. It's "doable" also doesn't mean its pleasant. I have checked the rural housing market recently and for a somewhat acceptable house you will have to pay easily ~3k per month given you have a somewhat big start capital. Not sustainable if one person loses their job for a while. Not to say it was that much easier back in the day, the housing market is just beyond fucked for most ordinary people.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany

A decent Flat in Germany, for example near Stuttgart, with good connections with train is about 300k. There are credit lines for 25 years with relative low interest rates. For that you are way lower than 3k per month (assuming 0 downpayment). With 2 people working in a household, you can afford that. Granted, you will not be the "typical" german doing 3 times a year nice vacations. But doing a "real" 1 or 2 week vacation once every 2 years is pretty much standard outside Germany, I think.

I live in the middle of nowhere in Northern Germany. A house where you wont have to tear down the whole place starts at 400k. And that's a basic small sub 100m^2 house with no garden.

Sorry but I wont get myself into 40 year debt for a bungalow.

After my father's death we sold our old family home for ~70k€ 15 years ago. It would have been in the 300-400k range nowadays. My salary certainly did not double - triple in that time frame.

Inflation and rich people buying asset class drives everything up

Ill just live for rent and let landlords leech my hard earned money. Gives me freedom to leave whenever I feel like it...

I am already 30, wont have a good start capital at 40 and I for sure wont buy a house that late in life.

How much do you wxpend wvery year on vacation and “going out“

I know plenty of people in germany who repeat continuously that stance, and they recognize they spend well over 10k/year in vacacions.

Ill fly to Japan next year. First foreign country vacation in 14 years. Estimated costs 3-4k. I go to concerts every few months so I spend a few hundred bucks there. Other than that most of my money goes into rent and food. I have some somewhat expensive contracts though. 50€ phone, 50€ internet.

Going out is living life though, I wont reduce my quality of life for decades just so I can afford a house.

But in short, I do barely spend money on vacations.

You are certainly not the type I am referring to. Even if you cut all that, will not help a lot.

Anayway my story: never ever sid vacation abroad.Vacation outside my home only every 2 or 3 years. Never eat out. I have no idea how is it to go to a concert. No expensive hobbies. When I was 40 all of that provided 40k for a down payment.

I do not regret it.

I can manage to save 500-1000€ per month. For me the biggest issue is just the general pricing. Maybe its emotional too, but I have fond memories of my family house when I was a kid and I dont want to buy comparatively a bungalow for quadruple the price.

TBH, if the german economy keeps in this track, at some point the prices will go down... the problem is at that point everything will go down.

You are talking house… I did not say house. I said home, meaning anything, including a flat. Yes, owning land is expensive. So what?

A flat is barely worth it given you still have to bother with neighbors. Those are also 6 digit numbers up here. Not happening. I want a home like my parents used to have. Regular old German refugee home with a nice garden, 3-4 rooms, 2 levels, 2 bathrooms, small cellar. Sounds big, was a rather small house though. Garden had space and a shed to work in. We sold that for 70k 15 years ago and I wont buy a flat for 130k where I possibly have to bother with noisy neighbors.

The price you noted will not buy you a decent flat in the vicinity of Stuttgart with good train connections. At least not for a family. The prices are around € 4.4K/m2. And that's the median. For newer buildings it's up to € 5.5K.

A 30 second search: https://www.immowelt.de/expose/274a3450-a403-4cd8-9ca5-44dc9...

A 10 second look: the garage place for one car is an extra 20k. The heating is 27 years old, so are the bathroom installations and the kitchen. I, personally don't want to sit on a 27 year old loo. To get this on to a modern level - at least another 50k.

Edit: I just checked on the laws etc. 2-wire electric installations are no longer allowed and property owners are obligated to renew them. In this case that would have to be done in the complete house with all other owners. Congratulations, there go another 50k.

That of the 2 wire is just wrong. At this point I do not know if you want to win the discussion or what. I live in a 2 wire-wired house. As long as I do not change the installation, is all ok.

Wann die Änderung verpflichtend ist Bei Neuanlagen: Die klassische Nullung darf seit 1973 nicht mehr für neue Installationen verwendet werden. Bei Modernisierungen: Wenn im Rahmen von Renovierungen oder Erweiterungen gearbeitet wird, müssen betroffene Stromkreise auf ein separates Null- und Schutzleitersystem umgerüstet werden. Bei unsicheren Anlagen: Ist der Bestandsschutz nicht mehr gegeben, weil Mängel oder Gefahren bestehen, die die Sicherheit für Leib und Leben oder Sachen gefährden, ist eine Umrüstung erforderlich.

You can live without a garage. Can't you? In Germany a car is pretty safe in the street. And I assume, you do not have a 50k+ car, if we are discussing "why can't I buy a house"...

Kitchen and Bath look perfectly usable for many years still... That is what I mean. People say "I will not have a house" but what they mean is: "I will not have a perfect house, with completely new bath and kitchen, garage, lots of room for everything, very well located" well, no, you will not. Sorry.

I agree about heating. But 50k is for the whole building, which will probably have reserves, so it will cost you maybe 5k to 10k spread in 6 months or so. And you get state help because you will surely go for heat-pump, means it even goes a little down. So the price goes to 310k...

The point about the bathrooms and tiles isn't about perfectionism, it's about mould. After 27 years of use I'd renovate wet usage rooms to reduce the health risk for my children. The same goes for the kitchen.

If the owner community decides on a heat pump, the wiring will have to be completely renewed. If the owner community decides on a modern oil heating system, the wiring will have to be renewed.

Parking your cars in the street while there is the option for a garage is somewhat antisocial, but let's not moralise. The garage is not optional, it's not sondereigentum or else it would have to be mentioned, so you'll have to pay.

What you are buying with this property is major financial uncertainty. There is a reason for this price.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com