Feels like the same consolidation cycle we saw with mobile apps and browsers are playing out here. The winners aren’t necessarily those with the best models, but those who already control the surface where people live their digital lives.

Google injects AI Overviews directly into search, X pushes Grok into the feed, Apple wraps "intelligence" into Maps and on-device workflows, and Microsoft is quietly doing the same with Copilot across Windows and Office.

Open models and startups can innovate, but the platforms can immediately put their AI in front of billions of users without asking anyone to change behavior (not even typing a new URL).