Something that struck me when I was looking at the clocks is that we know what a clock is supposed to look and act like.

What about when we don't know what it's supposed to look like?

Lately I've been wrestling with the fact that unlike, say, a generalized linear model fit to data with some inferential theory, we don't have a theory or model for the uncertainty about LLM products. We recognize when it's off about things we know are off, but don't have a way to estimate when it's off other than to check it against reality, which is probably the exception to how it's used rather than the rule.