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The Fed doesn't react to the market, it reacts to inflation and unemployment metrics for the most part.

Consumer spending and employment numbers aren't looking great, so a cut is still likely. All that's happening now is ensuring that there isn't much of a move when the expected cut actually happens.

The market can rally hard into the idea and dream of zero interest rates put in place by whatever stooge replaces Jerome Powell. I think we aren’t at the top, but will be in May 2026 when that happens. The tariffs will probably be declared illegal by then also. Tops come when everything is optimism and it seems like nothing but blue skies ahead. I don’t think anyone felt optimistic in 2025, it was a time of extreme uncertainty and turmoil.

It's hard to have collective action against rallying when overall most people benefit by a general upward trend.

Yeah for sure but:

'It’s impossible to quantify how much cash flowed from OpenAI to big tech companies. But OpenAI’s loss in the quarter equates to 65% of the rise in underlying earnings—before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization—of Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together. That ignores Anthropic, from which Amazon recorded a profit of $9.5 billion from its holding in the loss making company in the quarter' - WSJ

Their earnings growth is their own money that they gave to OpenAI.

You have that waiting in the wings.

Market is rallying cause there is too much money chasing too few assets. PE ratios will not drop significantly baring catastrophe and then financial contagion. After that happens the money printer is turned back on and then...

I don't see a way out besides massive reconfiguration. We've been living in this world since 2008 and the train shows no signs of stopping, only speeding up.

There is no natural limit to insanity

The natural limit to insanity is death.

(Unless your definitions of words are very different from mine).

I would consider death the asymptote, the divide by zero, dead things have no sanity.

I think there is a reversion to the mean bias, or this idea that we’re in post history era, or some other governing factors will kick in. Once out of a local minima things can become quite unmoored quite quickly.

"Hey Friend Listen, I know things in the world are scary right now... But It's gonna get way worse"

>besides massive reconfiguration

Why contain it?

And there is too much money chasing too few assets because capital is over-concentrated (which, to be fair, was the point of money-printing; shoring up over-leveraged entities on the bad side of a given trade so that they wouldn't have to gasp close their positions and diffuse that wealth across their counter-parties.)