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Comment by Stevvo | Hacker News Reader

Ten years ago SpaceX claimed they would send a rocket off to mars in 2022. They have not yet. Blue origin just did.

Blue Origin just launched two 550kg probes to Mars (1.5 AU from the Sun).

SpaceX sent a similar mass Tesla Roadster on a Mars-crossing trajectory in 2018, Psyche to an asteroid at around 3 AU in 2023, and Europa Clipper to Jupiter/Europa (5.2 AU) in 2024.

So SpaceX hasn't launched anything that has actually gone to Mars? Weird.

I still don't understand how Musk can promise a Mars launch next year every year and not at least send something, no matter how small, to Mars.

It would hardly be the first time he' demonstrated a casual approach to the truth

It would be a waste of time to develop right now, if it isn't on starship it would be a dead end in terms of progress. So they are better off just waiting until starship can be sent.

I guess they haven't had a customer who has wanted to send something to Mars yet. If they have sent something to Europa it's not like Mars is harder.

Blue Origin got patents on landing on a drone ship a decade ago. Until today they'd never done it.

Not sure what your point is, other than hatred.

Blue Origin has not sent a rocket to mars in the sense that SpaceX wishes to send Starships to mars. They have sent a probe. SpaceX has launched probes to far further celestial bodies than Mars.

Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon.

I have said this for years. Starship will eventually go to orbit, it MIGHT go a few times to the Moon. It will lucky if it ever makes it to Mars.

More than happy to be proven wrong. I mean they are still progressing but it is just a case of figuring out how long their runway is (economics).

Cmon. Don’t kill my dream. I dream of Elon musk flying to Mars. And staying there.

He hasn't even been to orbit.

... but alone. We don't want some Expanse-like scenario down the line with fascist part of mankind completely unhinged. Once he is over then colonize all you want.

Oops. Earth's space connection to X just went down. We expect service to resume in about one martian lifetime.

i would be sooooooo sad if we get a challenger #2 while sending musk up. depends on if he's the only one on board.

Anyone who is paying attention knows that Starship is mostly going to be a launch vehicle for Starlink. It's very unlikely that the upper stage will ever support external payloads.

Why wouldn't they make it for external payload if they get the cost per kg lower than F9? Running starship only is going to be cheaper than running both rockets, except if the economics of starship are worse (in which case, it would not be used for starlink either).

Can you provide your logic for this conclusion?

Have you bet on that on some betting market? I'd like to take that bet.

I have not, but I just checked and the odds for HLS moon landing before 2028 are at 12%.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moo...

12% odds for 3 years seems fairly resonable for a manned landing.

Your statement of "Starship will never go to Mars. It's very unlikely it will go to the Moon" which sounds like it includes even unmanned test landnings is a quite different beast.

There are more possible bets on manifold, you do you.

I'm not really a betting man, but given the HLS budget is spent and most of technology is not nearly developed I'd say even an unmanned Moon landing is at least 5 years and $10 billion away and Mars is pure fantasy.

> but given the HLS budget is spent

What does that mean? Starship is basically self-funded by SpaceX and the amount of money they got for the HLS contract is something they blew way past even before the contract, that doesn't make much sense.

Blue Origin just sent a rocket to low Earth orbit. Its payload, owned and operated by NASA, will be going to Mars.

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