I guess everyone is racing towards AGI in a few years or whatever so it's kind of impossible to cultivate that environment.
A pipe dream sustaining the biggest stock market bubble in history. Smart investors are jumping to the next bubble already...Quantum...
This is why we're losing innovation.
Look at electric cars, batteries, solar panels, rare earths and many more. Bubble or struggle for survival? Right, because if US has no AI the world will have no AI? That's the real bubble - being stuck in an ancient world view.
Meta's stock has already tanked for "over" investing in AI. Bubble, where?
You assume that's the only use of it.
And are people not using these code generators?
Is this an issue with a lost generation that forgot what Capex is? We've moved from Capex to Opex and now the notion is lost, is it? You can hire an army of software developers but can't build hardware.
Is it better when everyone buys DeepSeek or a non-US version? Well then you don't need to spend Capex but you won't have revenue either.
And that $2T you're referring to includes infrastructure like energy, data centers, servers and many things. DeepSeek rents from others. Someone is paying.
If Deepseek is free it undermines the value of LLMs, so the value of these US companies is mainly speculation/FOMO over AGI.
Who says they don't make money? Same with open source software that offer a hosted version.
> If Deepseek is free it undermines the value of LLMs, so the value of these US companies is mainly speculation/FOMO over AGI
Freemium, open source and other models all exist. Does it undermine the value of e.g. Salesforce?
The US government basically forced AT&T to use revenue from its monopoly to do fundamental research for the public good. Could the government do the same thing to our modern megacorps? Absolutely! Will it? I doubt it.
https://www.nytimes.com/1956/01/25/archives/att-settles-anti...
But the principle is there. I think that when a company sits on a load of cash, that's what they should do. Either that or become a kind of alternative investments allocator. These are risky bets. But they should be incentivized to take those risks. From a fiscal policy standpoint for instance. Well it probably is the case already via lower taxation of capital gains and so on. But there should probably exist a more streamlined framework to make sure incentives are aligned.
And/or assigned government projects? Besides implementing their Cloud infrastructure that is...
> Google X is a complete failure
- Google Brain
- Google Watch/Wear OS
- Gcam/Pixel Camera
- Insight (indoor GMaps)
- Waymo
- Verily
It is a moonshot factory after all, not a "we're only going to do things that are likely to succeed" factory. It's an internal startup space, which comes with high failure rates. But these successes seem pretty successful. Even the failed Google Glass seems to have led to learning, though they probably should have kept the team going considering the success of Meta Raybands and with things like Snap's glasses.https://x.company/projects/#graduate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_Development#Graduated_projec...
yes, a glib response, but think about it: we define an intelligence test for humans, which by definition is an artificial construct. If we then get a computer to do well on the test we haven't proved it's on par with human intelligence, just that both meet some of the markers that the test makers are using as rough proxies for human intelligence. Maybe this helps signal or judge if AI is a useful tool for specific problems, but it doesn't mean AGI
As for IQ tests and the like, to the extent they are "scientific" they are designed based on empirical observations of humans. It is not designed to measure the intelligence of a statistical system containing a compressed version of the internet.
I'll happily step out of the way once someone simply tells me what it is you're trying to accomplish. Until you can actually define it, you can't do "it".
If LLMs actually hit a plateau, then investment will flow towards other architectures.
Like the new spin out Episteme from OpenAI?
We are yet to create lab as foundational as Bell Labs.
Its pretty much dog eat dog at top management positions.
Its not exactly a space for free thinking timelines.
But the skill sets to avoid and survive personnel issues in academia is different from industry. My 2c.
Same goes for academia. People's visions compete for other people's financial budgets, time and other resources. Some dogs get to eat, study, train at the frontier and with top tools in top environments while the others hope to find a good enough shelter.
Why they decided not to do that is kind of a puzzle.
Google and Meta are ads businesses with a lot less surface area for such a mandate to have similar impact and, frankly, exciting projects people want to do.
Meanwhile they still have tons of cash so, why not, throw money at solving Atari or other shiny programs.
Also, for cultural reasons, there’s been a huge shift to expensive monolithic “moonshot programs” whose expenses need on-demand progress to justify and are simply slower and way less innovative.
3 passionate designers hiding deep inside Apple can side hustle up the key gestures that make multi touch baked enough to see a path to an iPhone - long before iPhone was any sort endgame direction they were being managed to.
Innovation thrives on lots of small teams mostly failing in the search for something worth doubling down on.
Googles et al have a new approach - aim for the moon, budget and staff for the moon, then burn cash while no one ever really polished up the fundamental enabling pieces in hindsight they needed to succeed
If the answer is yes, then better to keep him, because he has already proved himself and you can win in the long-term. With Meta's pockets, you can always create a new department specifically for short-term projects.
If the answer is no, then nothing to discuss here.
If you follow LeCun on social media, you can see that the way FAIR’s results are assessed is very narrow-minded and still follows the academic mindset. He mentioned that his research is evaluated by: "Research evaluation is a difficult task because the product impact may occur years (sometimes decades) after the work. For that reason, evaluation must often rely on the collective opinion of the research community through proxies such as publications, citations, invited talks, awards, etc."
But as an industry researcher, he should know how his research fits with the company vision and be able to assess that easily. If the company's vision is to be the leader in AI, then as of now, he seems to have failed that objective, even though he has been at Meta for more than 10 years.
I really resonate with his view due to my background in physics and information theory. I for one welcome his new experimentation in other realms while so many still hack away at their LLMs in pursuit of SOTA benchmarks.
Is the real bubble ignorance? Maybe you'll cool down but the rest of the world? There will just be more DeepSeek and more advances until the US loses its standing.
[1] Doctor of Philosophy:
That kind of hallucination is somewhat acceptable for something marketed as a chatbot, less so for an assistant helping you with scientific knowledge and research.
It seems they've given up on the research and are now doubling down on LLMs.
Apple makes the best hardware, period.
It makes sense that people are willing to overlook subpar software for top notch hardware.
(It works offline, it works in other languages, the TTS is much better.)
The first one is a solved problem now, and the second one, while not solved, is where a little bit of research can really make a difference.
And of course it doesn't work. Humans don't have world models. There's no such thing as a world model!
And animals' main concern is energy conservation, so they must be doing something else.
The animal learns as it encounters learning signals - prediction failure - which is the only way to do it. Of course you need to learn/remember something before you can use that in the future, so in that sense it's "ahead of time", but the reason it's done that way because evolution has found that learning patterns will ultimately prove beneficial.
https://aaai.org/papers/00268-aaai87-048-pengi-an-implementa...
It instead works by "doing the thing that worked last time".
As an example, you don't usually need to know what is in your garbage in order to take out the trash.
It seems that things like place cells and grandmother cells are a part of the pattern recognition component, but recognizing landmarks and other predictive-relevant information doesn't mean we have a complete coherent model of the environments we experience - perhaps more likely a fragmented one of task-relevant memories. It seems like our subjective experience of driving is informative - we don't have a mental road map but rather familiarity with specific routes and landmarks. We know to turn right at the gas station, etc.
It is like saying a fish has a water model. It makes no sense when the fish existence is intertwined with water.
That is not to say that a computer that has a model of the world would not most likely be extremely useful vs something like the LLM that has none. The world model would be the best we could do to create a machine that simulates being in the world.
LLMs cannot do any of the major claims made for them, so competing at the current frontier is a massive resource waste.
Right now a locally running 8b model with large context window (10k tokens+) beat google/openAI models easily on any task you like.
why would anyone then pay for something that is possible to run on consumer hardware with higher token/second throughput and better performance? What exactly have the billions invested given google/oai in return? Nothing more than an existensial crisis I'd say.
Companies aren't trying to force AI costs into their subscription models in dishonest ways because they've got a winning product.
LeCun had chosen to focus on the latter. He can't be blamed for not having taken the second hat.
And I stopped reading him, since he - in my opinion - trashed on autopilot everything 99% did - and these 99% were already beyond the two standard deviation of greatness.
It is even more highly problematic if you have absolutely no results eg products to back your claims.