The way I look at it, the longer you stay in a high risk investment, the more opportunities there are four your investment to go sideways (aka you lose your investment).

I see it as similar to flaky tests. Let's say you work on a codebase with ~100,000 tests. About 1% are flaky, where the average flaky test fails 0.1% of the time. On the surface that sounds like it's pretty low risk, but once you do out the math your unit tests will only pass about 36% of the time. Maybe a 0.1% flaky rate is acceptable, but not at that scale.

Long term investing plays the same numbers game. Let's say you invest in a risky stock for ~3 years, where "risky" means it has a 0.1% chance of failing in any given day. There's a ~36% chance you win, but you'll probably lose.