Transgenderism Is in Rapid Decline Among Young Americans
skeptic.com
skeptic.com
First, the surveys in the article are kind of odd and idiosyncratic in terms of samples, and not exactly top of the line in terms of methodology either.
Second, relatedly, the rates of non-cis-hetero endorsement are super high in some of those figures, way higher than makes any sense. The absolute rates themselves are enough to call into question anything that is said about them.
Sure enough, the article mentions that when you apply weighting, the trends disappear:
https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/fact-check-no-there-is-no...
All in all it suggests there's something about these surveys and their participants that is affecting things.
To their credit, the authors of the article mention a lot of their problems. They address the fact that not endorsing gender isn't the same thing as endorsing being trans, and they also cite the weighting issue. But they have this kindy of hand-wavy response to it that isn't really a response. The idea that weights aren't necessary or can be misleading is a ridiculous response in this kind of situation. And who cares if nonbinary-type response rates correlate 0.7 with trans identification? Maybe that rest of the variance is what accounts for changes at any given period.
I'd be more convinced by a series of rigorous surveys with rigorous methodology. Admittedly it's kind of hard to measure this sort of thing, but clearly something isn't working with this.
Also in the end, even if you take these data at face value, what should you conclude other than that secular trends are influencing the way people respond to, and maybe think about, questions about their sexual or gender identity? That's interesting but let's say the trend lines go back to what they were pre-2010 or so. Ok, the rest of the endorsers are still there, it's not 0% endorsement, and even if it were that would be a bit suspicious. And how do we interpret survey responses among the rest? That they're being open-minded about their sexual or gender identity a bit? How much? Did the respondents themselves change? What does this matter in terms of policy? That sexual and gender identification is more fluid than people might think, or that it implies something about freedom of speech?
On the other hand I think there are people (myself) who are just low salience, which may explain the rise in nonbinary identification. The older I get the older I would say I’m straight and male, but I also just don’t care, I am sometimes attracted to men, and I participate in trasditionally female activities or personality traits. I’m not tied to my maleness or my straightness.
https://www.skeptic.com/article/transgenderism-is-in-rapid-d...
All you did was chase them into the closet, and they'll be back.
https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/rainbow-trap-9781350429680/
which talks about the harm that labels do to people with variant sexual and identity and makes the case that "transgender-cisgender" is itself a binary that divides and obscures the truth. Similarly, "non-binary" creates a binary. 20 years ago you have have an alternative gender expression and maybe have some challenges but today it may be harder rather than easier because people are polarized about it.
I think gender is stupid, I have just always hated gender norms, but I’m also not crazy about labels. There was a moment, probably prior to 2023 where I experimented with the term non-binary because that’s where the culture was. And now, I would probably just not answer that question in the surveys. But I didn’t change, I still think gender is stupid, and I’m either cishet male or non-binary pansexual depending on how deep into the conversation we get.
This whole thing is overblown in the first place. It’s weird for a magazine called skeptic to show an assertive preference for binary definitions of gender and sexuality.
I think everyone should question their gender. The idea that you should try and conform to some definition of what society thinks you should be based on your genitals is crazy. How your formulate your personality should be way more dynamic than that.