China has built enough housing for everyone who will ever live in China, because they overbuilt during their housing frenzy [1] and they’ve reached the decline of the population curve where more people are dying every year versus those being born. Japan has more housing than people because their population has also reached the population curve decline [2], and will continue to decline forever (creating surplus housing supply). We need enough housing to cover peak population in each country [3], but also a system to lock out investment from front running humans for the ownership. Otherwise, Capital will consume housing while also trying to destroy jobs with offshoring, AI, and automation. To those who say, “just build more,” well, let me know when you’re going to show up to pour a foundation and start framing, because the evidence is robust in the US we’re having a heck of a time building more supply. You have to build more (which includes supply chains for affordable materials and a constant supply of tradespeople), and what you do build, ensure that supply gets into the hands of folks who need affordable housing (instead of housing anyone under 40 cannot afford, or entire built to order subdivisions by investors that are going to be rented out). The political will is lacking, because strong policy intervention will be required.
If immigration in flows to the US have mostly stopped due to this administration’s policies, ~2M+ people a year 55+ die every year, and ~3M people turn 18 every year, assuming a continuing declining total fertility rate (currently 1.6 and continuing to fall) and smaller family formation (couples and families with only 1-2 children, if any, versus families >4), what is the target build rate and the delta to get there? You can either build more, destroy demand, or some combination of both.
I’ve seen various reports that the housing shortage is anywhere between 2M-8M units, but I think Fannie Mae’s estimate of ~4M is likely the most accurate [4]. I’m a big fan of the Vienna public housing model [5], but again, political appetite is lacking to implement.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-housing-glut-populatio... | https://archive.today/OqYat
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/look-japans-reverse-housing-c...
[3] https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
[4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38252549
[5] https://www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/economic-growth/regio...