Even today's frontier models, without any further improvement, have incredible commercial potential. And even when improvements have diminisching returns in terms of result, the market shifts towards improved models in a supralinear fashion. So a linear improvement resulting from exponential investment might still net you exponential commercial return.

Also, the LLM space is a red queen environment. Stop investing and you are done.

All that said. IMHO Short to medium term breakthrouhgs will come from hybrid AI systems, the LLM being the universal putty between all users and systems.