The amount of fear in bullish investors and bubble companies is unreal | Hacker News Reader

The amount of fear in bullish investors and bubble companies is unreal

It’s like animal feral fear. The OpenAi post on Wallstreetbets had a mod delete it. All over they’ve been suppressing what was a freely given quote from their CFO. But you can also see it in the same way investors are acting in sheer terror when there is a tiny 1% drop. They’ve put gasoline and dynamite all over, so even the smallest stuff terrifies them. You should not be this terrified by these bumps, so if they are, what does that say about them.

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https://feargreedmeter.com/

Somehow the stock market is even more fearful than crypto today.

I wonder how that's calculated. The traditional measure is ^VIX, which not very high at all right now.

That's the scary part

I am so glad you asked that.

The fear greed index appears to be the same value as the CNN one. The CNN one has a link to explain it. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Being the pessimist I am I wonder when and how they change their criteria.

Yeah, it’s the panic tells that give it away — reflexive, not rational. When markets start reacting like prey instead of predators, it’s because they know the whole structure’s wired too tight. Tiny sparks shouldn’t cause stampedes unless everyone secretly smells the fumes.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45825689

You seem really confident that it is a bubble. Do you have a short position? Or do you want to make a concrete bet on it?

If the valuation of OpenAI in 6 months is not less than what it is now, would you gracefully agree you were wrong?

It's still a bubble, even if it doesn't or won't at all implode. It's a bubble because the underlying economic realities don't come anywhere close to the current valuation. I.e. it's all so inflated due to speculation.

6 months is nothing and doesn't say anything. But AI is just the frothing on top of the debt bubble, and all the cheap money that is still circulating around the economy. What I'm personally doing is taking on an asset allocation that would weather a potential downfall.

this is a weak argument. if a bubble doesn't pop it is not a bubble. you can't keep claiming it is a bubble for 10 years

the Chinese property bubble took about that long to pop, but it eventually did.

It seems the AI bubble may be starting to pop for some, like plantir and nvidia.

when?

Last couple days. Moreso Plantir than Nvidia.

Palantir is an AI stock?

They're supposed to be a major source of AI tools for government. That's not all they do, but that's what has been driving the massive stock price increase.

Well you will never see that ever on the front page of HN.

Why is that?

Maybe it is likely that the AI bubble has reached its final stage and is close to popping and those with unjustified valuations will get obliterated when it crashes.

we can only hope - this bubble is particularly tiring with all the evangelists desperately trying to get me to use their shitware

During a recent interview with podcaster and OpenAI investor Brad Gerstner, Altman lost his cool when he was asked outright how it all adds up.

“How can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments?” Gerstner asked him. “You’ve heard the criticism, Sam.”

“If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” a taken-aback Altman replied curtly. “Enough.”

Surprised by the confrontation, Gerstner let out a laugh in response.

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-lose...

> “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” a taken-aback Altman replied curtly.

Uh huh. So, why is OpenAI seeking federal backing, if Altman is that confident that he can find buyers? (Which I am vehemently against. I do not want the US taxpayer to be the bagholder of last resort.)

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