Hasn’t he been incorrectly predicting massive crashes every few years ever since he was right that one time?
How many bad predictions does he need to make before people stop caring what he has to say?
How many bad predictions does he need to make before people stop caring what he has to say?
tl;dr he's a perma bear.
I actually don't think he's wrong, but one thing I've learned is that it's not enough to recognize a bubble. Almost everyone sees the markets are, as they say, frothy. But you need to see if there's a needle nearby. Without that you're just trying to get lucky.
Puts especially are really hard because they expire. They limit your loss compared to shorts, but you need to time it perfectly.
Also, his returns aren’t really impressive compared to VTI, which has had an annualized return of 14.04% over the past 10 years according to Vanguard. That works out to 372% total returns in that period.
It’s easy to make money when even the broadest US index fund is up by that much.
A joke said of Trump, of whom it is much more fair, but still...