> Given the trajectory of inference cost, it unlikely that they would fail to reach profitability.
Is there evidence that their revenues are growing faster than their costs?
Is there evidence that their revenues are growing faster than their costs?
Very little data about expenses, but it looks like they may be growing a little slower (3-4x a year) than revenue. Which makes sense because inference and training get more efficient over time.
> We don't have evidence one way or the other
I don't see how both of these things can be true. How can we know something to be likely or unlikely if we have no evidence of how things are?
If we don't have any evidence they're moving towards profitability, how is it likely they will become profitable?
You wouldn't demand that a restaurant jack prices up or shutdown in its first month of business after spending ~1 MM on a remodel to earn ~20k in the first month. You would expect that the restaurant isn't going to remodel again for 5 years and the amortized cost should be ~16k/mo (or less).
> it's hard to directly figure out what is true CapEx vs. unsustainable burn.
Exactly, and yet you're so certain they'll achieve profitability. The cost for pickles could get cheaper but if they're constantly spending more and more on the rest of the burger and remodeling the building all the time to add yet another wing of seating that may or may not actually be needed it doesn't really matter in their overall profitability right?