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The buyer is not assessing that way. The buyer has a diverse portfolio where they only need 10-20% of their bets to succeed. The math is not in your favor as an employee.

Your intuition is wrong here. Check out the Kelly criterion and do a little math - by my math, when you have modest personal assets <$1m, if you expect a 200x return from today, and you think there's a 1% chance that'll happen, you should sell 99% of your current stock and only hold the 1%. This maximizes the preservation of your net wealth.

VCs have MUCH larger bankrolls and so their Kelly bet is proportionately larger, but not percentage larger.

You're selling only 10%, you still get to see the other 90% go up in value, but that 10% you sold protects you from a wipe-out.