is 15% realistic?
“The first national bank of dad” is a book that suggests a similar approach and I believe it also advocates a 15% interest rate.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average...
And on top of that there's huuuuuuuuge variance over time. You have to scale in and out of the market over a very long time to actually get the ~7%. Any one time investment is just a straight up gamble. It's only in aggregate over a long time that you get something somewhat reliable. But then the numbers aren't that impressive. I understand why people are so fond of buying bigger or second houses instead. It's a shame because it drives up the price of housing making it less available for our young. We're basically saving for our future by robbing the future of our young. It's pretty dark to be honest.
But without leverage, long run return of residential real estate is like 3% after costs, which is less than equities but above bonds.
At least that’s what I tell myself as I go to sleep in my apartment, a non-homeowner watching people accumulate serious paper gains in their houses ;(
Source: a paper called the real return on everything.
The paper "the real return on everything" notably cuts off in 2010 and is talking about global averages, if you narrow it down to specific countries we can see stark differences. In the USA and UK you get 8.4% and 7.2% returns on equity, but only 6.03% and 5.36% returns on housing, a stark difference. Adding in mortage leverage adds on about a percent or so of return, thus still not bringing housing in-line with equities.
If we narrow our window to post 1980, we see in the UK returns of 9.34, 6.81 and 6.67 % for equity, housing and bonds. If we look at post 2010 in the uk, house prices have only stayed the same or decreased in real terms since then in the uk for instance, whilst equities have soared.
They also in the paper assume bond yields are roughly the same as mortage interest rates, which maybe was true for their data period, but hasn't been true since 2010 (https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2022...)
Finally you can diversify equities globally, you cannot diversify your housing globally (if using leverage in a mortage).
While the housing market as a whole may go up, the likelihood that any individual house will go up probably varies more.
How do you get that much leverage from a brokerage to invest in equities? In the US we have something called Reg T, which basically says brokerages can only lend at 2:1 against securities in most cases.
Even most leveraged ETFs will generally stop at 3X.
Since we have stamp duty (a tax on share purchases), it is massively advantageous to use CFD's especially if you can find a provider who doesn't offer leverage, so your downside stays low. In addition since it is legally classed as gambling, earnings are not taxed which offers a nice tax advantage over stocks or options if you're investing more than £20k a year (the max you can invest tax-free a year in the UK in an ISA).
Effective interest rate is something like 7-10%