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>Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

I think it is near-certain that within two years a large AI company will claim it has developed AGI.

There are unironically people who claim we are already actually at AGI.

... and it will turn into a "technically true" rat race between the main players on what the definition is exactly while you can ask any person on the street with no skin in the game who will tell you that this is nowhere near the intuitive understanding of what AGI is - as it it's not measured by scores but instead of how real and self-aware your counterpart "feels" to you.

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