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Or a massive opportunity cost. I’d imagine 250Bn of OAI business is way lower margin than 250Bn of some other random companies that don’t need H200s.

Why does this cost them business with the other random companies?

MSFT had a right to compute exclusivity.

"Microsoft will no longer have a right of first refusal to be OpenAI’s compute provider."

Seems like a loss to me!

I assume that first refusal required price matching. If the $250B is at a higher price than whatever AWS, GCP, etc. were willing to offer, then it could be a win for Microsoft to get $250B in decent margin business over a larger amount of break even business.

The risk stays somewhat similar. If OpenAI collapses it won't spend those 250B.