Make the strongest claim you can support.
Going back to TED Talks, ridiculous analysis and comments citing a TED talk are often based on a talk that itself was not ridiculous.
I asked about elaboration on that area of responsibility because I'd assume that he had a relatively small audience of highly capable people, yet even so had more intimate contact with the specifics and had to struggle with just how to present that more full knowledge in a concise but still responsible way.