Canada Set to Side with China on EVs
thewirechina.com
thewirechina.com
Canada literally has an EV mandate: https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-techn...
Canada has also worked on developing an EV industry: https://electricautonomy.ca/ev-supply-chain/manufacturing/20...
And your reply does not touch on the 'unkind' portion of my comment. Why should those workers suffer more than they already have?
Yes, Canada is economically integrated with the US to a massive degree and we're each other's biggest trading partners. But the analogy with California is a totally false one.
They are a US state subject to its federal laws and political system. We are not.
We maintain political independence, and need to maintain that independence.
You would think if you wanted to be independent you would have your own EV car company. If EVs are the future and Canada cannot make competitive EVs with china this means Canada will not have an auto sector. Given that there are hundreds of thousands of people working in this area it doesnt actually bode well for Canadians.
I am actually Canadian this is why I am so familiar with the situation.
I would love a Canadian EV company to exist because I'd love to work there as a software engineer.
Got any leads? :-)
You are literally advocating for something that is against your own desires.
The Canadian market cannot support a car company without exporting the majority of production. The US is our largest natural market and does not want our auto exports. It's unclear why other markets would want our EVs either.
Artificial barriers to protect an industry where we don't have an advantage (autos) which results in tariffs on a sectors where we do (agricultural products, resources) isn't sustainable or desirable.
But parent poster is correct that blindly subsidizing and funding a local industry with no market will also just lead to boondoggles and failures.
Especially in the context of an uncooperative trading partner which could have been a potential export market for our production in the past but now is a hostile state trying to break apart national unity and destroy what little manufacturing sector successes we have.
We've already had major issues around the massive battery construction plants proposed here in Ontario and Quebec, that got major government support and investment.
Unfortunately this is the very difficult place the manufacturing sector in Canada finds itself in. And the Canadian working class as a whole.
I wouldn't call it myopic to be skeptical here. If there was an easy answer Canada would have taken it decades ago.
I hate to say it but the boondoggles of Canada are just graft. These arent investments in any real sense.
As for this line 'Unfortunately this is the very difficult place the manufacturing sector in Canada finds itself in. And the Canadian working class as a whole.'
look this is just neoliberalism. Maybe stop doing that and things will suck less.
How much are 125k manufacturing jobs in Ontario worth? Are there no better economic sectors that we can build up?
It might simply be that Canada cannot compete in any market. You have a very interesting choice at this stage. Do you A. not have an economy or B. have an economy that may require some sheltering from the world.
A mobile capitalist wants A. A human that is bound to the country probably wants B.
Up until Trump, Canadians viewed the United States as a friendly country, and had a hard time imagining that the US would actually employ its massive leverage in a malicious way. The most concerning thing for Canadians should not be that Trump has tried to employ this leverage against Canada, but that Americans haven't risen up in revolt against this attack on a friendly country. Canada cannot rely on the US being a friendly country in the future, even if Trump does leave office in 2029 (which he is already suggesting he may not do).
So legally speaking, yes, Canada is not like California. Canada is formally an independent country. But practically speaking, unless Canada takes drastic measures, it may become more like California than like an independent country, for all practical intents and purposes.
But also by its political right, and at least one of its national newspapers which is continually running anti-EV FUD. Not the least because our second largest sector in the country (after manufacturing) is oil&gas, and the energy sector is the most powerful political-economic block in the country and the source of ideological power & influence in the western half of the country.
Similar tensions in the US.
There are active disinformation campaigns about EVs running constantly, and if you follow the money it always ends up back at the petroleum sector.
Prices for batteries have plummeted and they're the only expensive component of an electric car so why do we still only see EVs in the luxury vehicle price tier / category?
The North American auto industry refuses to produce a low cost EV.
Although the Bolt is coming back, so that's good I guess. Too bad it's made in the US so I won't touch it.
Allowing critical manufacturing supply chains to move to China is stupid.
How do you feel about integrating your manufacturing base with a nation that opposes the fundamental values of our nation, and constantly fantasizes about annexing our nation?
Unless you're arguing for Canada to make its own EV manufacturing industry independently from both China and America?
Unfortunately, it's not 2000s/2010s anymore, and rules of the game have changed. Most countries realize that there is a future that's not purely Pax-Americana (including USA as well). Sovereign nations will choose what's best for them and their future, especially in the cases of a neighbouring bully.
They infiltrate civil society through their networks of “police stations” and the Confucius Institute with the aim of placing sycophants in positions of power.
They aren’t our friends, and Canadian civil society needs to recognize that.
So, you are saying they arw like USA right now, except more predictable?
Canada has a long standing problem. The only thing we've ever been good at is natural resource extraction. Ironically we have several world class universities producing very talented people and IP, and the vast majority of it goes to the states to make money. Then here in Canada we carry on digging stuff out of the ground.
and instead dependence on the U.S.?
Second, I don’t buy your fear mongering about China. There’s not much fundamentally different about China and western nations in 2025. They’re a capitalist society prioritizing growth at all costs, same as every other western nation. China is not interested in war, and has stated that consistently over the years.
Third, as far as “critical manufacturing supply chains” go, extremely inefficient luxury personal vehicles don’t fit that definition.
We could and should further diversify by removing whatever barriers are keeping European cars out.
Why should Canada rely on an inferior manufacturer?
My anger lies with the neoliberal elites not the Chinese. The elites can go die on the battlefield. Its their mess.
EVs arent able to function in -40c That happens in Canada every year.
Anything under 0c has risk of freezing the lithium battery's electrolyte and will have very very significant capacity loss; not to mention damaging cells. That's a huge problem for Canada.
I look forward to solid state batteries having far better low temp performance.
Our northern most cities like Edmonton get to -40c and -50c regularly: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-extreme-cold...
Fair, yes, my city only ever really gets down to -20c. Yes I own an EV that's outside 365.
To expect much EV adoption in Canada is foolish though.
>hey should feel upset, because their government hasn't addressed the global shift to EVs sooner.
Our government has heavily invested in EVs for like 15 years. This is a bizarre take.
None of the 4 biggest Canadian cities have EVER had -40C temperatures. No, wind chill does not count.
In fact, most years they’re not even getting to -30C, and if it does happen it’s only for 1 to 2 days. The rest of the time you’re dealing with average -10C, which China also regularly deals with. But guess what, even if you can’t use your EV one day out of 364 days that’s not that big a deal. Most people should just stay home that day.
The source is I’m Canadian and lived in Ottawa for a decade.
And also an EV would work just fine, just with lower efficiency.
If you're not plugged in, your EV should be using its stored energy to keep the battery alive, which it can do for several days.
I lived in Edmonton and surrounding rural Alberta for the first 25 years of my life, the most northern and cold major city in the country and it does not get to -40 unless you're counting wind chill, and cars don't feel wind chill, people do.
An EV has no real problems operating in typical Canadian weather, less problems than a gas car in fact. Yes, they lose efficiency but so do gas and diesel vehicles.
And sodium ion batteries are now entering mass production, which have no efficiency loss in extremely cold weather, and in fact will outperform ICE in this regard (though their power density is lower than lithium ion)
China has significant climatic variation, and Harbin (for example) at around 45 degree latitude is right in line with Montreal.
https://english.news.cn/20230712/a56c80cac8e749f0bcf02579463...
Edmonton, where I'm actually from, has had record lows of -40, but these are extreme outliers. When people speak of -40 in Edmonton they mean wind chill, not real temps. Look at a scatter plot of actual temperatures in Edmonton and it's really not the drama you're implying.
Cold climate is not the barrier to EV adoption. Pricing (and politics) is. Anywhere in the world where EVs have been price competitive to ICE vehicles, consumers have preferred them.
There are political / economic interests in Canada (and North America generally) that absolutely do not want EV adoption. One would expect that from an oil&gas producing nation. Doesn't mean that reasonable people who understand that climate change is an actual thing should support this position.
On the one hand, there's a very strong push to reduce car usage. In Paris, the speed limit has been reduced to 30 km/h, 50 on the ring road, many lanes and parking have been removed to improve bike infrastructure. Then, when sales drop and jobs are on the line, those same people are absolutely shocked.
Now, personally, I'm all for reducing traffic in cities. I'm not particularly keen on breathing exhaust all day every day or getting run over by two tons of steel. Sure, a whole debate can be had on specific use cases, people living where there's no public transit, etc. But my point is that you can't, on the one hand, push for something, then be angry when you obtain the consequences.
Up until a few years ago, there was a very hard push for diesel engines. Local companies invested a lot in those. Now these engines are practically banned, and even gasoline ones aren't faring too well. So, automakers have to scramble to move to electric, but it takes time. While other companies, built from the ground up to this, already have models head and shoulders above what we can produce. And politicians, true to nature, come up with all kinds of weird incentives. They've recently introduced a weight tax on vehicles [0]. On the face of it, it's an "SUV-tax" to limit "gas-guzzlers". Cue surprised faces when they realize a Tesla weighs as much as an SUV (I'm talking European models here, so no absurd Escalades or what have you).
[0] This is France, so laws have exceptions. Electrics get an "allowance", which basically reduces the mass considered for the tax. But it's not entirely clear how that works. Ditto for hybrids.
Most politicians aren't independent: they are members of parties and, generally, push for the same kind of policies, "the party line".
The Paris mayor is a member of a left party, the Parti Socialiste (PS). The same people who tend to cry foul when plants close down and people are laid off. This party is also more or less in some form of alliance with the Green Party who's also very much against cars. In the lower chamber no party has an absolute majority, but through (shaky) alliances, "the left" has the most seats (still no absolute majority, though). Also, many members of the President's party used to be members of the PS (including President Macron).
So, I'm pretty confortable lumping all these people together, since, broadly-speaking, they defend the same policies, even though there may be the occasional difference.
Up to you though.
Umm, it doesn't? I'm assuming you're comparing Tesla non-SUV's to other SUV's. Tesla's aren't light, but they're lighter than most comparably sized SUV's. For example, a model 3 weighs 3800 pounds but a BMW X3 weighs 4200 pounds.
The limit is very low, 1800 kg (4000 lbs) initially and it's lowered gradually to 1500 kgs (3300 lbs).
My 2005 gasoline-powered mercedes c coupé weighed 1600 kg. My dad's hybrid corolla weighs over 1500 kgs.
References: https://www.service-public.gouv.fr/particuliers/vosdroits/F3...
The markets are heavily intertwined and have been for decades. E.g. Ford Canada is just as old as Ford in the US.
Canada almost certainly does not want to allow Chinese made vehicles to undercut their local producers. Any talk of this is just posturing and threats in the ongoing trade negotiations.
The old integrated cross-border auto manufacturing system is over. Stellantis is already moving production of Jeep from Brampton to Illinois, and others are expected to follow.
Now, since his American majesty decided to throw away the Canadian auto industry we don't have anything to protect. Better to make deals with the Chinese now, before the whole American auto industry is destroyed.
As to how much of which, that's a good question, and not one I've seen any answers to.
Both China and the US know this and are playing cat and mouse with us, fanning tensions, and the US is outright funding western separatists and encouraging grievance politics around their resource exports. The US has aggressively tariffed manufactured goods coming out of central Canada (and forestry out of BC) while leaving potash and oil & gas out of AB/SK untouched while simultaneously outright funding far right groups there that are are agitating against Canadian unity.
At the same time China has slapped tariffs on canola and made it clear that EV tariffs are part of the calculus there.
I don't see an easy way out of this. As a resident of Ontario I'd be sad to see the auto sector here go, and it would lead to massive economic devastation here ... but it feels entirely inevitable at this point. Not just because of tariffs but because the actual products from the Big3 automakers are increasingly mediocre and what they're producing here is on the whole not fine, sustainable, products anyways.
Car parts, and Honda & Toyota plants are another story, maybe.
So a lot of incentive for Canada to side with America on this. But Trump blew up that relationship, and this is the consequence.
> The announcement came after encouragement by U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Cabinet ministers Sunday.
- AP News, August 26, 2024
https://apnews.com/article/canada-china-evs-tariffs-0cd68ba7...
This is evidently not ideal. I bore witness to manufacturing completely leave my hometown, third tier city over the span of a decade. Today, there is little economic opportunity in that town, with massive drug abuse, and petty crime. It used to be a nice place, and working in a factory earned you an honest living. Unfettered trade with China killed places like this, destroying an entire generation.
At the end of the day, wanting electric cars from China depends on your values, do you want incredibly cheap electric vehicles, even if it means destroying an entire industry that the largest province in the country relies upon? Or do you want to maintain a functional manufacturing base that is critical to political and social stability?
I'm not happy about the choices. But c'mon PP?
The bank of Canada (head) again warned about the lack of productivity of the Canadian worker.
I think Canada needs new leadership. Canada has had the same leadership for the last 10 years.
Lutnick has already stated that America wants all vehicles for sale in America to be built in America. Any vehicles built outside America will be tariffed.
Sure, the Chinese will destroy Canadian any auto-manufacturing left for the domestic market, but it is the Trump administration's stated goal to dismantle the Canadian auto-sector, which is happening now.
Cons: it will probably be the death sentence to the Canadian auto industry.
Pros: the gas engine auto industry is dying already anyway, with or without a deal with the Chinese. Besides, if we make the deal now, at least we can sell canola and pork to them.
This is a direct response to tariffs. Canada is done playing nice with its big jerk trading partner and will be opening its options to achieve this goal if the tariffs aren't lifted.
It's not clear from that sentence who you mean, so I was clarifying.
I doubt I'm offering anything that hasn't been part of discussions already, but having the ability to manufacture vehicles seems like an area of industrialization a country shouldn't part with lightly.
I drive a Polestar2, a Chinese (Geely) produced EV. The quality is good. The price for what it is... too high. And now most support for it is being dropped and sales networks in North America drying up because of these tariffs and political moves.
How I'd love to see Geely set up a plant here.
OTOH, Europe has set their Chinese EV tariffs up at a defensible level. They're nominally set up in a way to offset subsidies. Canada should have set up its tariffs at the European level.
Now it's probably too late, its a political football. Canada will either make a deal with China or the US in exchange for those tariffs.
China then tariffed us on canola for example; but the Federal liberals arent going to melt down Ontario for the benefit a few thousand western farmers who will never vote liberal.
Counterpoint though, stellantis and GM are essentially exitting Canada due to Trump. Essentially every single car manufacturer has commented they are exitting Canada and we're penalizing them all. Has trump forced us into the hands of China and Europe?
Indeed. In order to get/keep Argentina out of the hands of the Chinese Trump gives them $40 Billion. A pretty risky venture considering their past record. I am aware that there are other reasons for the bailout (e.g. Citron hedge fund manager, who could lose a fortune, is a buddy of Bessant etc.).
Canada on the other hand gets lots of bullying. The hegemonic goal of the USA is to control the Western hemisphere, yet Trump does everything to make the Canadians want to pivot towards China. Is that what the Geopolitical Elites in Washington want? Or is it a ploy, to push Canada into the hands of China, giving the USA an excuse to "take Canada over".