Probably, but for sobering reasons, maybe less so than in the past, because because 50% of US consumer spending is by the top 10%, and the top 10% is far less dependent on credit for their spending.
A society where there is a more balanced distribution of spending power would be more affected by a consumer credit collapse, but the treasuries of such a society might be more desirable anyways.
The top decile of the wealth distribution is around $1M net worth.
The people doing the borrow-for-spending-against-non-housing-assets-as-collateral are beyond the top .01%. While they are also spending whales, they are able to negotiate far more favorable rates than the rest of the top 10%, whose spending is mostly income-driven.
All your base are belong to US
But still, bravo
Day gig is at a firm that extends consumer credit, so I keep an eye on cost of capital tracking, monitoring the spread, etc. Any debt packaged and sold into debt markets (asset backed securities) competes against treasuries from a yield (and risk premium pricing) spread perspective. Mortgages, auto loans, some credit card books, etc.
When the Fed cuts rates, your deposit account provider is going to start cutting your interest rate paid right away, but they’re going to maintain their credit rate pricing as long as possible (considering competition from other lenders) to maintain their spread and profit as long as possible. You see this with credit card interest rates, for example.
TLDR 10Y treasury sets the rate floor, broadly speaking.
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