Tesla Q3 2025 Update
sec.gov
sec.gov
That folks is from the Q3 Shareholder Deck from the 1.5 Trilion $ dollar company. An app that 'anyone can download to join the waitlist' - I guess the >50% of US population served by Robotaxi before the end of 2025 is already achieved...
I'm sure they will somehow figure out how to dupe people for some more quarters about Optimus, Robotaxis and AI, but we are witnessing history here - this quarter mark the top of the revenues for Tesla and most probably their last profitable quarter. This boost was only thanks to demand pull from US EV tax credits expiration. It's all downhill from here.
Who could possibly believe the CEO saying that their robot 'will seem so human that you will need to poke it to believe it's an actual robot' - and it's coming in less than 6 months ?
FASCINATING
This thing will fall once the supply of fools run out or there is a major market corretion, not when the SEC intervenes. Just like Madoff.
No, the problem is that by all sane metrics, Tesla is currently overvalued by a factor of 20. The markets could shift the decimal point left one place, and it would still be wildly overpriced. That cash pile you're talking about is significantly smaller than the amount of money that Musk has made from owning Tesla shares.
Now, can Tesla sell 20 million cars? Yes, eventually, sure why not, is there a time limit?
Can they get 1 million Robo taxis on the road? They're currently about six years behind Waymo, so probably not.
10 million FSD subscriptions? Only if given away with something else. Like, if it comes free with Grok Pro that might be cheap enough.
Can they sell 1 million humanoid robots? This isn't inconceivable, but the market has yet to be validated. We have yet to see how good the software really is in the real world, or what the real world really needs. I wouldn't bet on it either direction.
But the share price target? That only makes sense if the USA experiences genuine hyperinflation. Which isn't impossible, and sadly is starting to be no longer inconceivable either.
I guessing you would think a Picasso painting selling at $10 million is way over valued as the paint and canvas it was painted on are only worth $50.
That being said, every time there was some event or report or earning that I thought the tesla stans would finally see as negative and thus stock drop, I've been wrong. I guess the sales drops for 1 quarter actually effected the stock some time earlier this year.
Everyone in SV that isn't filled with Musk hate always says "Don't bet against Elon". And they've been proven right many times, no matter how much people don't want to admit it. Maybe this time is different, nothing lasts forever. For any standard CEO, the NASA news, the starship delays, the tesla sales, the embarassing tesla demos... people would be very reasonable to predict failure and even full-blown implosion. But I for one won't be taking out any short positions any time soon.
Specifically for tesla, I do think it's very possible that this is top revenue quarter for at least year, if not forever. But I just can't make myself completely discount the possibility of them succeeding wildly with robotics. He and his team have pretty impressive experience in cross-sections no one else has. They've built complicated physical things AND they've developed and deployed complicated controls/automation technology (FSD, Falcon/Starship) AND they've done so profitably, at least at times. Just the supply chain expertise is top tier, especially important with China shit. A successful robotics company will have to have all of that, and Tesla does. That being said, I don't understand how you can say stuff as stupid as, paraphrasing, "Having more sensors (lidar) can actually make things worse" and lead companies who must have controls knowledge/expertise as a core competency. I can only assume he knows he's full of shit and is playing to his loyalists who will eat it up as a valid critique of other self-driving efforts.
give it few more earnings calls and they won’t be a robotics company or automation company, they will focus on building personal flying machines, to be fully operational by Q1 2027
Elon said on today's earnings call that Optimus will be a great surgeon and Tesla will enable universal access to healthcare for all. Also Tesla's new goal is to bring the age of ubiquitus aboundance for everybody. He didn't specify though if it's on Earth or Mars.