I can’t shake the feeling that we are living through a period of growing geopolitical tension. It reminds me of Downton Abbey during the season when everyone senses the approach of World War I. The signs are there, the atmosphere is heavy with anticipation, and yet there is a sense of helplessness. Everyone can see what is coming, but no one seems able to stop it.

We are also going through an economic realignment as major powers prepare, in different ways, for the possibility of conflict. That shift is causing slowdowns, disruptions, and a chain of related effects that are creating significant economic costs around the world.

In the long run, the most important goal is to prevent war. I believe our leaders are focused on deterrence, reducing dependencies, and building contingencies to make a large-scale conflict less likely and long term economic sanctions more likely.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, I have felt this unease deep down. It also helps explain why political parties that would normally prioritize growth are now making decisions that seem to go against that goal.