The bank's risk seems quite a bit lower than the VC's risk.
Plus the post seems to only include 1 year of interest.
Unless we know the terms, I don't think we can necessarily calculate EV from JP Morgan's perspective. I would say that they aren't usually carelessly giving away money though... They probably have terms where they can get out early if OpenAI's position weakens etc.
I agree but had different questions. TFA mentions the consideration of whether failure cases are correlated, but of course if OpenAI wins big, there's a good chance this directly or indirectly creates much instability and uncertainty in many other loans/partners. What's the EV on whether that is net-positive considering this is a loan at 5% and not an investment?
On the other side, if OpenAI crashes hard, is it really such a sure thing that Microsoft will be the on the hook to pay off their debts? Setting aside whatever the lawyers could argue about in a post-mortem, are they even obligated to keep their current stake / can they not just divest / sell / otherwise cut their losses if the writing is on the wall?