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> EV are progressing fast so they lose value quick,

Are they really, though?

A 2021 Model 3, Mach-e, Polestar 2, Model Y, F-150 Lightning, e-Tron, or ID.4 (to name just a few) are not too different from the ones sold today. Aside from software updates and minor refinements (mostly DFM), I don't see much progress. That's not a problem, since they're all competent vehicles for single-car households.

Several 2025/26 models have even been de-contented compared to their 2021 selves.

Trying to steel-man your argument a little, the only models I can think of with significant progress are the bZ4X/Solterra (widely panned due to initially uncompetitive specs and pricing), Leaf (which has been getting small, incremental improvements for more than a decade) and the now-discontinued Bolt (which was the cheapest road-tripable EV).

I think you really have to be looking compliance cars that entered the market before the Model 3 and/or models that were acknowledged as uncompetitive when new to find significant/fast progress.

No, the real problem is that the true market-clearing price for most of these vehicles was $7500-$10000 less than MSRP (which was set knowing the regulatory environment), combined with the false calculation of depreciation based on MSRP instead of market price.

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> No, the real problem is that the true market-clearing price for most of these vehicles was $7500-$10000 less than MSRP (which was set knowing the regulatory environment), combined with the false calculation of depreciation based on MSRP instead of market price.

This seems like it. If you paid $29,000 for something with a $36,500 MSRP because of a $7500 credit and a few years later it's worth $22,000, the amount of depreciation you're calculating by starting from MSRP and the amount that the buyer actually experienced are off by more than a factor of two.

Meanwhile the credits caused more new sales than there would have been otherwise, which means more cars of that model available in the used market, and supply and demand is still a thing.

It's not evidence that people don't want them, it's evidence that if you subsidize something the price comes down.

I wonder if COVID distorted the market enough to show up here?

I have anecdotes of friends/family/coworkers who bought cars (or second cars for the household) to avoid public transport.

And 2nd hand prices for cars gere (Australia) went batshit insane for a while during and as we chose to pretend that COVID was over - and those artificially inflated prices are mostly over now.

Not just the extra demand from people avoiding public transport but supply chain disruption caused by COVID affected the supply of new cars (and spare parts), so people who wanted a new car were now considering new-ish cars.

I have colleagues who bought new EVs and made money selling them one year later, because the market was so wild back then. For a while you could still add some deductions here, some credit there, sell an old car and “girl math” your way to a “free car”. Now people are surprised pikachu when the bubble has burst.

Not just EVs, the entire car market was insane. A friend of mine sold his minivan for $10k over what he had bought it for a year or two before.

I know of someone who sold their _place in the queue_ to get a new RAV4 Hybrid and made 8K on the deal, while actualy delivery of the car was still tow months out.

We had a whiplash effect in the US.

In late 2020 and early 2021, Used car prices plummeted due to so many people trading in 2nd vehicles. I remember tire kicking a 2008 vehicle that was 2000$ then...

Whiplash on used cars started later in 2021, as people were starting to go back out more and in some cases beginning to RTO.

The combination of rising new car prices and rising interest rates in 2022 only further hurt the market. On top of that the newer cars are in many cases less reliable so people are holding on longer.

Fwiw I just double checked and For reference that same 2008/make/mileage is now more like 5000$...

Just to be Mr pedantic here, the same mileage means you have a much better vehicle 5 years later. I would add 25-40k extra miles to account for typical mileage added per year

Sorry im not following; unless it is a 'special' car, a 2008 car with 120k miles, except accounting for inflation and market dynamics, would be worth less in 2025 with the same mileage. Except of course for the factors I mentioned (as well as inflation)

Op was comparing the same mileage 5 years later. Being pedantic about an apples to apples comparison would require adding additional miles.

Sorry that was difficult to grasp I will try to be clear in the future!

Don't know about the us but all models mentioned were well over 50k (most nearing 75k+) with incentives where I live and thus fall in the top 1% income bracket range. And expensive mass produced cars lose value faster than cheaper models as they have to be sold second hand to the next lower income bracket which is an exponential curve hence the high dropoff. This used to be the same for ice cars.

Of course both can be true as well.

Oh, you're in for a surprise. An ID.7, the updated Model 3, Ford Explorer/Capri, plus all the ones you don't have in the US - Nio, Zeekr, BYD, Renault, Skoda, Volvo, Cupra - are significantly better than the EVs of five years ago.

In what way? Specifically, in what way compared to a Tesla from 5 years ago? (Most other makes were not great 5 years ago.)

Not the person you asked the question but i can answer this partially.

I see from the EV my parents bought, they got for 22k euro, a car that does 240km on paper. Now a few years later, you can buy a BYD for 26k, that does 450km (ext version) on paper. That same BYD is WAY more fancy, tech gadgets etc...

But that is comparing a lower market segment where this effect is stronger.

On the higher end market, where the Tesla's used to dominate, we see less movement as those cars already came with tons of tech, and large batteries.

Thing is, i am still not buying a EV despite them being better. The same arguments we had with EV disadvantages is still present today. I rather buy a second hand gasoline engine simply because of the convenience of the default 600 a 700km range on most vehicles, the 5 minute tank job, the lack of charging in the city, the prices despite the heavier depreciation in the second hand market are still worse.

Ironically the gasoline car we bought 10 years ago, for 7.5k, still sells today for 8k in todays market (added 50k kms on the car). So even if we take a cut, the actual gasoline engine depreciation is strangely less strong. I track several gasoline cars where i had a interest in from years ago, same phenomenon.

For some reason you expect gasoline cars to drop more in pricing because now in EU 17% of new cars sales are EVs and 36% are hybrid. So more gasoline cars on second hand market? No ... because people are also buying less cars because of the economy, more work from home etc. Resulting in actually less second hand cars as people hold on to their vehicles longer, waiting out this transition periode.

> Now a few years later, you can buy a BYD for 26k, that does 450km (ext version) on paper. That same BYD is WAY more fancy, tech gadgets etc...

Right, because the other $26k is being subsidized by the party. And much like the US found out with rare earths: once China has the market cornered, the price will rise and/or they’ll use access to their goods as a tool of war.

They’re playing the long game and western nations seem unable or unwilling to do the same.

https://insideevs.com/news/763687/china-zero-mile-used-evs/

That might be true, but it doesn’t matter for the buying decision of the individual consumer.

It will matter a lot if (replacement) battery prices skyrocket…

Most individual buyers are unable or not willing to take global perspectives into account, otherwise Japanese cars would never make impact on the American market for example. You need people in power to make informed decisions, and even then you risk the only result will be people getting very angry that politician mess up with the market.

I don't really see a prospect of that, since the batteries are steadily getting both better and cheaper. What makes you think so?

For E-Bikes at least communication between the engine and the battery pack is encrypted and you can't replace either without the manufacturer's consent.

This seems more like an added feature of some E-Bikes, rather then an essential design element of E-Bikes in general.

And even if true, it doesn't follow for me that "therefor, batteries must become more expensive in general, despite the current trend".

I think you're implying lock-in and extractive profits, rather than rising cost of manufacture. It's an argument for diversity of key industries, and that batteries might become such. I agree with that. But as an argument that (in parent the comment's words) "so, battery prices will skyrocket", it seems a bit thin to me.

battery prices are expected to "Plummet" not "Skyrocket": https://cleantechnica.com/2025/10/15/plummeting-battery-pric...

I don’t think the argument is „batteries are getting more expensive“, the argument is that manufacturers will start maximizing profits once they have sufficiently handicapped the competition.

They might, at which point the argument for diversity of key industries kicks in. Batteries are key to the near future of hand-held gadgets, e-bikes, passenger cars, many other vehicles and to power grids, so the tolerance for extractive monopolies might be limited.

Yes, we should not let one manufacturer or one country be the sole supplier. The scale is large and will only grow, and if the profit margins are large, then there is opportunity.

The past and future evidence is firmly on the side of batteries getting steadily cheaper. I'm not saying that the opposite is impossible. Just that to make that claim, there is therefor a substantial burden of proof to be met, and I don't see it at all in this thread.

That's a hard argument to make as long as the relevant antitrust authorities are diligent about mergers & acquisitions.

Batteries are not a differentiated product. They're basically completely defined by 3 numbers: capacity (in watt-hours), power delivery (watts), and weight. Once those are optimized (which is the process going on now), the chemistry, construction, and manufacturing of batteries is basically a solved problem. Any barriers to entry are purely in the technology and manufacturing. About 200 years of industrial history shows that these are not durable barriers to entry: eventually, technology and know-how diffuses, and knowledge of how to make even very complex machines becomes a commodity. (See eg: power looms, memory chips, hard disks, agriculture, TVs, automobiles, drones.)

Durable competitive advantages usually take the form of either a.) complex consumer interface, eg. with software or CPUs b.) network effects, eg. telecommunications, payment networks, software again, utilities or c.) regulations, eg. payment again, airplane manufacturing, healthcare, and shortly software. These are industries where factors outside the company in question ensure that there will only be one or at most a small set of companies in the market.

When you have a commodity product, the only route to extractive profits is to form a cartel and lobby governments or consumers to believe the cartel is in their interests, eg. with oil or diamonds. But this is a hard sell because the cartel is not in their interests. You can generally only fool people for a decade or two before they decide they've had enough and legislate your monopoly out of existence.

People tend to overindex on the software industry when it comes to "maximizing profits" because that has been the big story of the 2010s, ignoring that Big Tech very carefully implemented every play in the "build a monopoly" playbook to get there, and that millions of indie software developers actually do not make a very good living because their products are commodities.

"The relevant antitrust authorities" aren't going to be able to touch anyone who manufactures in China, and that is currently the centre of battery manufacturing. I have nothing against batteries and EVs and solar panels made in China. They are a huge benefit to humanity as a whole. But it should not be a chokepoint.

But the rest stands. The barriers aren't that high. How soon it is diversified, depends on how much attention the other countries and companies are paying.

Remind us all how that’s working out with insulin.

Free-of-charge to patients where I am. I know that the US takes a different choice on the consumer price of insulin, but it is exactly that: a choice.

There are/were plenty of subsidies on EV cars in US/EU.

Also chinese companies innovate better and have more efficient supply chains that western ones.

The push to ban chinese automakers is stupid because it punishes customers at the benefit of automakers. Crony Capitalism at its worse.

>Also chinese companies innovate better and have more efficient supply chains that western ones.

Yeah because they just steal and copy everything from Western companies and others worldwide. Why spend hundreds of millions and 10 years doing R&D when you can just hack in and steal it? It's the Chinese way.

Chinese hackers took trillions in intellectual property from about 30 multinational companies

- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-hackers-took-trillions-...

The annual cost to the U.S. economy of counterfeit goods, pirated software, and theft of trade secrets is between $225 billion and $600 billion.

China is the world’s principal infringer of intellectual property, and it uses its laws and regulations to put foreign companies at a disadvantage and its own companies at an advantage.

- https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/china-exec-summary-risk-...

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_intellectual_pr...

Salt Typhoon is an advanced persistent threat actor believed to be operated by China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) which has conducted high-profile cyber espionage campaigns, particularly against the United States.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_Typhoon

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aurora

Industrial espionage: How China sneaks out America's technology secrets

- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64206950

etc etc etc

Yes GM is lagging behind BYD not because it's leadership and managerial culture but because "chinese copy".

And the solution is to punish consumers and enrich GM's totally failed leadership and irrational shareholders by throttling competition chinese.

Here in europe cars have become so expensive compared to just 10y ago.

Some of it is because of stupid green policies, but most if because EU carmakers have been successful in reducing the competitive pressure from China by the use of tariffs on chinese firms.

> Here in europe cars have become so expensive compared to just 10y ago.

Check the ownership of the different brands and you will discover from the dozens of brands in Europe, there are really only a few companies making cars. And the "mother company" then shares chassis between models, engines between models. So you can have a a Lada with a Renault engine, with a Dacia chassis. We see 3 brands, but in reality, its one brand.

* Groupe Renault's owned brands include Renault, Dacia, Alpine, and Lada.

But wait ...

* Stellantis was formed from the 2021 merger of two major auto groups: PSA Group (which included Citroën and Peugeot) and FCA (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles). Therefore, the brands Stellantis owns are now a part of Citroën's parent company, which include brands like Peugeot, Fiat, Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge, and Opel.

You see the issue very fast. If you own many brands, do you compete against each other, or do you "stabilize prices for max profit". Same issue with other brands...

Its like in the US, where if you trace back the brands, like 3 or 4 companies, own like 90% of the known US food brands. And when you have only a few companies, gentlemen's agreements about not competition too much are a thing.

Hey, why are HDD not dropping in prices for the last 10+ years. Well, there are only 3 brands left (with two that are huge). Hey, why did SSD/NVME prices suddenly skyrocket. Well, only a few brands make the stuff, and when one decided to increase prices, all of a sudden the rest also followed. Strange is it not...

We are in the age of monopolies again, and that is linked to a lot of the price issues.

At this point IP seems to be less of a moat to competition than manufacturing ability. And that is what America and other western countries gave up on. It is easier to focus on branding and profit margins than the fine points of high volume production.

Even if that was true in the past, it has been many years since companies in China can actually do a better job at design than their western counterparts. And engineering, and manufacturing.

They also hired a ton of european designers for their house brands. They have no need to copy anything.

Yes, the west let this happen, and it’s too late to cry about it, action needs to start happening (and I don’t mean import barriers or a trade war) if we don’t want to be dependent.

Maybe intellectual property is not something you should bet the company on then? The customers don't give a shit who made the original idea. We live in a global market, eventually you need to Realpolitik about things

Considering the documented history of the US government spying on and pressuring allied countries (just look up echolon) for their own economic gains, I always find it ironic how people are complaining about China. Shouldn't we base our trust on past behaviour? Has the US not proven to not be trustworthy.

Your also forgetting that Chinese cars have a large import tariff.

Current rates are BYD (17%), Geely (18.8%), and SAIC (35.3%).

> And much like the US found out with rare earths:

Rare earths is not rare at all. China has a cornered the market on processing those minerals for cheap. The problem is that we in the West have no appetite to actually support companies to process those "rare" earths.

And the US is really the last country to even talk about batteries, when the arrested 300+ Koreans that worked to get a US battery plant going.

> They’re playing the long game and western nations seem unable or unwilling to do the same.

Its not just a government issue, its a companies issue. You think that car companies in Europe do not get subsidies? Have you ever looked at how much subsidies they get opening new plants or renovating plants?

Reality is that a lot of car companies enjoyed their little monopolie positions in Europe. Sure, we got a lot of brands, but in reality its a illusion of competition, as most brands are owned by a few big companies.

China had a different situation, where yes, there was subsidies from the government (and a lot of misuse of those subsidies), but you had 100's of car manufactures entering the markets. I mean, we talk about BYD often but BYD was not even a car manufacturer until 2005 ... The result is a strong competition between car makers, what resulted in a lot of technological development and a push to be better then the next guy(s). Constant copy and innovation work. Work to reduces prices to be able to compete better, as remember, their competitor also go those subsidies.

We have this issue with our car industry only to thank to our own car industry. Frankly, i am happy to see the Chinese enter the EU market, for the simply fact that it pushed the EU car makers to actually start innovating again and offering more to the clients.

The issue with competition to dead was a issue in new upcoming industries, like solar. Because their both sides started with the same level vs +subsidies. The car industry is a totally different beast with deep pockets and manufacturing capabilities. So lets not act like "poor EU car makers".

>the lack of charging in the city

This would be the killer for me. I have a private garage with plugs, and even at 120V, I can out-charge my typical driving needs. I work from home and only occasionally take trips beyond a few miles, with a few longer road trips a year.

My IONIQ 5 (USA) does 300 miles (480 km) on paper, but in practice, I've seen a fair bit less. That said, it does charge up 20->80% in under 20 minutes at a fast charger.

Disclaimer: never owned a car, no driving licence. Also talking about Norway with generally good charger infrastructure.

Was on a road trip last summer, around Norway, in VW id.Buzz. Charging time of 5min vs 20min doesn't matter. When you're on that long trip, you need time to eat, go to bathroom, walk a little so your legs/back doesn't hurt. In the whole trip there was maybe one forced trip to a shop, because we had time to burn (the only charger was too slow and needed a whole hour to charge).

OTOH have a friend with first gen Leaf and his max charging speed is pretty slow. He additionally can't charge at home and this makes the slow charging time a little off a nuisance.

> Charging time of 5min vs 20min doesn't matter.

I think that’s only true if chargers are sitting idle. Otherwise you’re waiting longer in a queue before you can begin charging, and this delay compounds.

I hear Norway has good charging infrastructure. Here in France, on highways, there are usually chargers at gas stations, with spots available (don't know the specifics; I don't own an EV). However, it should be noted that I avoid driving during very busy days, so I can't comment on what happens in that situation, especially since traffic would reduce an EV's range.

However, where I live in Paris, there are three parking spots with chargers available around my apartment. Some apartment buildings have underground parking, for which I understand there's a push to set up charging infrastructure, but many buildings do not. Mine doesn't. If I had an EV I'd have to wait around for one of the three places to free up, wait for the battery to charge, then go move the car to a different spot.

Now, I don't particularly need a car, which is why I don't own one, but for my use case, an EV would be an all-around hassle to keep charged. I also mainly use vehicles to go on trips to remote places—I very rarely take highways. Hell, a few years ago I was in the mountains, and gas stations were so far apart that I was running on reserve when I got to one.

I'm not against EVs, and it's clear there are many situations where they're great. But I think we're still in a transition period with plenty of situations that aren't covered yet.

> especially since traffic would reduce an EV's range.

Very much a misconception; unlike in an ICE, you're not consuming energy idling in traffic, in fact your efficiency tends to go up with the lower speeds in traffic.

I was thinking more about stop-and-go traffic, as opposed to moving slowly but at a steady pace. I'd expect the repeated accelerations to consume more than just going at a constant speed. Is that not the case?

You get a lot back (70% or so) from the regenerative braking.

Not terrible unless you are lead footing both the accelerator and brake.

Also as far as Stop and go... its typically also lower speed; wind resistance is not linear based on speed, so 'crawling' is not that bad.

Im in the US and drive a hybrid rather than an EV, that said 'stop and go' is when I will often seem an MPG -increase-, so long as I gently accelerate (in severe stop and go, just letting my foot off brake and not touching gas).

That's also some of the justification for 'mild hybrids' that have an auto stop and maybe at best a 11kW/120Nm electric motor to kick things off. If you don't drive with a lead foot they can improve efficiency (but overcomplicate things compared to Toyota HSD)

I suppose main counter condition would be in low temperature conditions; AC is fairly efficient, Heating less so, and then in severe cases the batteries need to activate their own self heaters.

It may take only 20 min to charge to 80% but in practice you might have to wait until a charger becomes available or drive around to find one that's available.

That was not my experience on the single road trip I've done since getting this new EV. I charged 7 times in total, and did not have to wait for a charging bay at all.

I'm honestly not that bothered by it. I'm very much a "type B" road tripper. I don't care if it takes me an extra hour or two to get there, as long as I'm having a good time. Heck, I might go down some random road named "Old Priest's Grade" and add an extra hour to the trip just because the descent has beautiful views.

> Was on a road trip last summer, around Norway, in VW id.Buzz. Charging time of 5min vs 20min doesn't matter. When you're on that long trip, you need time to eat, go to bathroom, walk a little so your legs/back doesn't hurt.

That is often the argument that i see but people forget a lot:

Fast charging if often 20 > 80% for 20min. If you want 80 to 100, its a lot less fast (think how your phone slows down).

While you can drive down to 5% of less, it can become a issue if you do not find a charger. When the summer vacation happened, a lot of north traffic goes south, over France ( and reverse).

What happened? People ended up waiting 15 a 25min at the chargers traffic jam in their cars. Then they charged up to 80% (because the stations had people to manage the flow), and needed to drive out (or pay more/fine).

This resulted that your range was already reduced by 20%. You ended up wasting 15 a 25 minutes stuck in your car. And with airco's on because its summer, so more battery drain. Aka, you did not really tank X km range, but X - waiting usage - 20% less limit.

Its always fun to compare a gasoline engine 5 min tank job, vs "not a issue, we need to stretch our legs", but when the reality of long trips that often coincide with vacation periodes... Yea, then the disadvantages of that statement come into play.

So the irony is that, a EV with a realistic 500km range, got hit with a 20% at chargers, then another hit from the waiting, o and you had no choice, it was fast charge or no charge.

I remember warning people to not see EVs based only on short trips or long "out of season" trips but also on those typical school vacation trips that many take. Ironic part, if you drove a hybrid, 5 min tank job for 100% fuel at the regular price.

Hit by A/C is negligible in most EVs. What you're saying is more that there is a current charger shortage, supply/demand will take care of that in the future.

In the european school holiday season, gas stations can also build up long queues, it's not exclusively an EV problem, though slow charging cars can compound the issue. Most people travel by plane or train anyway [1].

Every EV route planner already assumes you'll only charge to 80% (and won't discharge below 10%), because that's the range where you can charge at high speeds. In practice, when compared to a combustion engine, a 2x 15m stop trip becomes a 3x 15m stop, or 2x 20m stop trip

It's not a big deal especially if your average stop is much longer than that. Or if you have a car with battery swapping, which only takes 3 minutes from 0% to 90%.

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

A lot of new cars in western Europe are bought as company cars or leased by a company.

Companies never buy used, so I think a lot of those sales are from buyers who wouldn't consider used. So those buyers are only now starting to create supply in the second hand market

Most EVs are basically high end luxury tech mobiles now. What ICE manus charge $5k in their tech package is basically standard across most EVs nowadays. It's insane the amount of bells/whistles cheap EVs come standard with now.

> Most EVs are basically high end luxury tech mobiles now.

I am fairly baffled when I come across positive vibes for modern cars. I'm not declaring those vibes wrong.

I'm saying I don't understand the lack of angst and resentment for

    what vehicle owners have lost (full ownership - what they've
      bought can no longer be assumed to be theirs. features and 
      operations can be [and are!] stolen by manufacturers.
      whole vehicles have been effectively stolen when
      a manufacturer declares a vehicle is no longer operational
      [because something something violation].
      other things owners have lost: safe tactile controls,
      non-extortionate repair costs - which insurance companies
      will pass on to every policy holder they can)

    how drivers are mistreated by manufacturers (relentless surveillance,
      driving data collected to exploit owners and empower other entities
      [ex:insurance] to financially or otherwise mistreat them
      - inc deeply personal data like mental health and other
      personal trips. nothing is off the table.) 
    
    how drivers are forced to mistreat everyone around them (continually
       blinding drivers, bicyclists and pedestrians. 
       continually robbing other drivers of critical distance visibility.
       leaving inches on both sides of their parked car for passengers in
       adjacent cars to exit)

    how they are forced to be less-safe drivers (forcing eyes away from the
       road to make routine adjustments to climate, etc - adjustments that
       for generations were trivially done by touch)

I can't be okay with this. Not because of some moral stand. It's because I feel awful when I'm mistreated. And I'm unhappy when I am forced to mistreat others. More so when it's hours a day, every day.

This is why we need to pass right to repair (or modify) legislation , return control over your own belongings.

This must supersede any TPM/copyright restrictions or other encumbrances.

Let's have a look at the standard range.

2021 Tesla is on the Intel processor, so the software runs laggy and is missing some updates.

It would likely have the heatpump which was introduced 2020 but some markets only got it 2021 if I remember correctly.

You are also missing on cooled seats, have worse noise isolation & worse dampers, no lfp Batterie, 130km less range and so on

Tesla is a bad example here because it was the best by a large margin 5 years ago, and it more or less stagnated (especially in markets where FSD is not available). But - at least in Europe - the cheapest Tesla you could buy 5 years ago was over 50 grands, now you can have one for 35k with no subsides, depending on the market.

This alone has a giant effect on the second-hand market (of Tesla, which again was the dominant brand years ago so it's also the dominant second-hand brand)

I thought nobody wanted Teslas in EU because of Elon Musk? I wouldn't expect it to be the dominant second-hand brand.

There are a lot of them on the roads in Europe.

Tesla is still the cool geek car. And geeks care more about tech and gadgets than politics.

That drove down new cars sales in a few countries indeed. Also there are viable alternatives for new buyer's (although Tesla is still probably the best value for money). But the second-hand market is different and if you want a second-hand EV that you can actually use for long trips, Tesla is the only option.

Yes, there are people traveling with Kona or Leaf but personally I would not do it.

There are still lots of Teslas on the roads where I am, relative to to other EVs. Cars are big expensive assets, they don't vanish, usually. Even if you now regret the purchase, you may be stuck with it for a few years.

For any given brand, the number of vehicles on the road isn't a function of the brand's popularity this quarter. Its the sum of popularities over the last decade or more. So, loss of reputation takes a long time to feed through. And people wanting to unload them won't make them less prevalent on second-hand markets, quite the opposite.

But also, the % of EVs that I see that are Teslas is slowly declining, as other brands proliferate and the EV market gets larger.

Tesla sold close to 1/2 million calls LAST QUARTER. Their record quarter. They’ve not slowing down.

OK, but that doesn't invalidate anything that I said.

I discussed what I see, that's inherently local not global. There could be places where Tesla sales are slowing down, even if they're net growing globally.

Local is London, UK for me, btw.

I discussed Tesla's as a % of EVs total. A brand such as Tesla could still be e.g. growing sales at 5% per year, but if the EV market is growing at 10% per year, they're still becoming a smaller % of the total number of EVs on the road.

The more interesting trend to me is the proliferation of many different EV brands. Time was when Tesla was the only EV. Then there were a few challengers. Now it's all-in from traditional German brands such as BMW and VW, The Korean Hyundai-Kia group have a lot of new models, through to BYD and the other Chinese newcomers. Even Toyota and Skoda are there now.

I think that something like this Tesla "relative decline even as sales grow" is happening, and this is a natural consequence of the EV market diversifying and maturing. If you really want an EV it doesn't have to be either Tesla or Nissan Leaf any more. There are lots of options and ruling out one specific brand for whatever reason is not going to prevent that.

If you want records, I'll note that 1) The largest EV maker by worldwide volume is now BYD and 2) BYD is pushing hard into the UK market, and others. It's early days for them in the UK, more so for the other Chinese newcomers.

I'm sure you can understand local growth vs. global growth when you look at BYD: They are number 1 globally, but have negligible EV sales in the USA.

And BYD being number one globally underscores that, in a growing market, Tesla can have a record quarter and still be losing % share of the total market.

"Chinese EV giant BYD sees UK sales soar" : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3w5jl2jgqwo

People think that people generalize with political labels because they say things like “liberals are not buying Tesla’s because of Trump”. But when it comes to the EU they just say that everyone acts like the same kind of person.

I have the 2024 Model 3, traded for a 2020 Model 3.

The Highland revisions made the car much quieter, less rattly and boxy. The windows are two-ply for sound reduction. The suspension feels better and less rattly. The panels fit. Water doesn’t come up inside the doors now.

I don’t know if there’s any significant new EV tech in there, but they significantly upgraded the rider experience by improving their car-building.

Of course, VW, Audi, etc have been making doors that fit for a long time, so this could be a Tesla-specific thing.

Both versions are super fun to drive. Just whizzy and responsive. Fun. The new one also doesn’t suck on noisy highway cruising like the old one did.

What makes them better?

Presumably you’re in the US, given the models you list. Don’t look there, because the best EVs are not available in the U.S. because of trade barriers. Look at what BYD and Toyota are doing in China.

How does that impact depreciation in the US?

The article here is about rental car fleets, and explicitly states that consumers (and particularly Teslas) are not seeing the same depreciation. Rental car fleets often buy EVs that are available on the global market (eg Kia or Hyundai models) and sell back into that global market.

Ok, I'll bite: what are BYD and Toyota doing in China?

https://insideevs.com/news/758625/byd-megawatt-charging-demo... https://time.com/collections/best-inventions-2025/7318540/by... https://www.electrive.com/2025/06/02/byd-expands-megawatt-ch... https://thenextavenue.com/2025/07/28/how-byds-latest-innovat...

And that's just some low hanging fruit.

Electric vehicles are improving at the rate that batteries are improving. That is faster than you may think.

If you look just at Teslas, they go further and charge faster on smaller batteries (higher energy densities). These batteries cost less and will last far longer. And Tesla uses an older battery tech than Chinese companies use so, in fact, batteries have improved far more. And with sodium ion, there is about to be a massive improvement over the next few years.

>Are they really, though?

Yes, if you look beyond progress within a specific model line. For instance, there is a marked difference between the range and towing capacity of a 2023 Chevrolet Silverado EV and the Ford Lightning. The Kia EV9 offered a substantial price advantage over existing 3-row EVs when it was introduced in 2023. I think you're right that actual pricing vs MSRP is probably the biggest factor, but real and rapid improvement in the products also contributes. I know I've put off buying an EV van because I know that better options will be coming within the next 18 months.

> the now-discontinued Bolt (which was the cheapest road-tripable EV)

FYI the Bolt is back, at least for a limited run. [1]

1: https://news.gm.com/home.detail.html/Pages/news/us/en/2025/o...

I can’t speak for the rest, but I believe in 2023 Tesla’s all moved from HW3 to HW4.

I went from a 2020 Model 3 to a 2025 and the self driving experience is dramatically better. I’m one of those “I will never use FSD” people and I honestly love driving…but it’s so good I find myself using it constantly and just being awestruck.

tesla's cars literally just got remodeled what on earth do you mean bz4? toyota? yes they made their terrible impractical car actually practical in its latest form.

the teslas are newish, with new parts and better sound suppression. they also improve marginally in efficiency every year. so the 2023 will have slightly better mechanicals than the 2021 etc.

not too different ... they are very different. much improved. go read a review comparing them.

how much different is today's durango from last year's or here lemme remind you durango hasn't been updated in 15 (count them!) FIFTEEN years. other zombie gas models are out there too.

Personally I chose a new over a used Model Y this year because the Juniper release includes a new front bumper camera which could prove crucial in certain unlikely scenarios, and improve overall self-driving. It’s important enough that there are rumors they’ll offer the option of retrofitting it onto earlier versions: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-to-identify-your-model-y-...

Also HW4 likely unlocks significant self-driving performance that the earlier hardware stack cannot accommodate, and will support features that are yet to be released for a longer period of time.

Which is all to say: looks to me that the progress is significant.

> Which is all to say: looks to me that the progress is significant.

Assuming you care about self driving enough. That's a big premium to pay for that alone. Fine if that works for you but I can't imagine that being a reason for many.

Getting a new battery or newer design battery is probably much more of a driving factor

I'm looking at getting a used F-150 lightning, with the caveat that towing anything absolutely decimates your range.

The new redesign coming out next year addresses this with a huge battery size increase.

Does real progress matter? What about the perception of progress?

Cars don’t need to be better, customers only need to think so.

Just look at the smartphone market.

I'm sure for newer EV models makers cut down on production costs but they may also cut down on quality as well.

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