Hacker News Reader

Comment by cameronh90 | Hacker News Reader

Not a surprise when the tech is improving so quickly still.

Why would I pay a significant fraction of the original price for a 2020 EV if a same tier 2025 EV has better batteries and drivetrain that'll probably have a longer lifetime, almost double the range, heat pump and faster charging? That doesn't mean the 2020 is bad, but it's only worth it if you can get it at an enormous discount over the current model.

Meanwhile, a 2020 ICE is pretty much the same as a 2025 ICE aside from the wear and tear.

Once the tech stabilises, so will the resale market.

View on HN

Is this born out by real life examples? Is a 2025 Model 3, for example, significantly different technologically from a 2020? Definitely does not have double the range, and the technology has evolved only slightly in that time. The heat pump was introduced in late 2020. (and to be honest, heat pumps have turned out to be less of a slam-dunk than we hoped, they have a minor effect on range for most people)

Not double the range. But you could get one with an LFP battery now that probably has about double the life time in terms of cycles. Closer to 3K cycles rather than 1200-1500 cycles for the NMC batteries common in 2020.

Fun fact, the 2020 model 3 would still have its battery under warranty. That's true for most model 3s with the exception of those that did more than 100K miles or the ones that were sold in 2017. Those would have just started coming out of the eight year warranty. But most of the second hand model 3s are still covered by warranty for their drive trains.

Mostly, second hand buyers can get some decent deals on their cars now and don't have to worry that much about their cars depreciating massively when they sell them on five years later. With EVs most of the depreciation happens in the first few years.

I will say, when you get far enough to worry about only having 1200-1500 cycles, you have extracted a lot of life from the car. It's a good problem to have.

The resale market isn't shaped by technology but market demand which you frame it narrowly to what you place value on.

Otherwise there is no reason for old Porsches and 90s Japanese cars to demand the sticker price they do now.

The people who are willing to pay more for a used car down the road aren't interested in EVs or mass produced ICE cars, if unique enough will continue to be in demand over EVs

ex) New porsche EVs losing value against ICE cars

FWIW: Porsche depreciates just like any other car EXCEPT the 911 (and other GT variants) which is a rare outlier. But your point stands.

"Meanwhile, a 2020 ICE is pretty much the same as a 2025 ICE aside from the wear and tear."

One would think and hope so, however numerous ICE manufacturers, even long-term reliability experts like Honda, have been adopting "wet belt" timing belts.

These run submerged/immersed in engine oil, which tends to degrade the belt, often resulting in clogged oil pickups, galleys, etc.

Buyer beware, unfortunately.

I have wondered that too particularly when buying brand new.

I don't want to buy a new EV, only to find that in 2 years the technology makes a giant leap. I have that comfort when buying an ICE, but not an EV.

I guess you just need to bite the bullet.

2025 EVs aren’t double the range of 2020 EVs. The batteries and power electronics are on a learning curve but it’s 2-3% per year, not 10-15% like microprocessors.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com