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I've read this story before on a different site. I was near the start of my career in 2009. I honestly think they are overstating the effect of those banners.

The significant shift IMO was when Windows 7 machines replaced the ageing XP machines. That is what I saw in the google analytics on the sites I was supporting at the time.

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Indeed, their own graph shows IE7 dropping in usage share by very similar amounts at the same point in time, without a banner.

Yes. I am sure it did contribute, but they are overstating the effect of the banner. I honestly think Win 7 being a good OS and the Intel Macs actually being good is what led to nibbling away of legacy IE.

As an aside. IE7 was IMO worse in some ways the IE6. It had many of the same rendering bugs but was more subtle in how it failed.

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