AGI nowhere near
If you can manage to keep structuring slightly intelligent tools so that they compound, seems like AGI is achievable.
That's why the thing everyone is after right now is new ways to make those slight intelligences keep compounding.
Just like repeated multiplication of 1.001 grows indefinitely.
But starting earlier this year, I've started to see glimpses of what seems like intelligence (to me) in the tools, so who knows.