The AI bubble might not last another year. Better get a few more pumps in before it blows.
The public co valuations of quickly depreciating chip hoarders selling expensive fever dreams to enterprises are gonna pop though.
Spend 3-7 USD for 20 cents in return and 95% project failures rates for quarters on end aren't gonna go unnoticed on Wall St.
As for efficiency, replacing one programmer in group of 10 with AI already will increase productivity and lower the price. In most cases. In reality adding AI accounts to existing group works better. This is _now_, not hopes or sci-fi.
That's why I'm saying there is no way back. 'AI winter' is as likely as smartphones winter.
But that's the foundation.
And there is a plateau in real money spent on AI chips.
You're ignoring a whole group of economic and finance professionals as well as - if you're inclined to listen to their voices more - Sama calling it a bubble.
If not for AI spending, the US already would be in a recession.
So your argument might sound nice and practical from a purely scientific perspective or the narrow use case of AI coding support, but it's entirely detached from reality.
Career finance professionals are calling it a bubble, not due to their suddenly found deep technological expertise, but because public cos like FAANG et. al are engaging in typical bubble like behavior: Shifting capex away from their balance sheets into SPACs co-financed by private equity.
This is not a consumer debt bubble, it's gonna be a private market bubble.
But as all bubbles go, someones gonna be left holding the bag with society covering for the fallout.
It'll be a rate hike, it'll be some Fortune X00 enterprises cutting their non-ROI-AI-bleed or it'll be an AI-fanboy like Oracle over-leveraging themselves and then watching their credit default swaps going "Boom!" leading to a financing cut off.
...and again, this is assuming AI capability stops growing exponentially in the widest possible sense (today, 50%-task-completion time horizon doubles ~7 months).