A contagious disease pandemic is not a black swan event. We have had many of them before and there are people whose day jobs are to model and plan for them.
Pandemics and pandemic scares are really friggin' common.
Regardless of official classification, I don't recall any of them having anywhere near the same global impact as COVID.
This is a very pedantic counter argument that leans on the fact that "pandemic" has too broad of a definition. There was nothing else like COVID in my (40 year) lifetime.
Those are, obviously to me as a different reader, the entire point.
Russian invasion is not a black swan event, we had many of them before and there are people whose day job is to plan for them.
Tsunami, earthquake are another examples. We had them before and there are plans for such events.