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Comment by walru | Hacker News Reader

They don't even make a firm stance in saying that it's worth $15/share. With decelerating growth and the fact they can't figure out how to monetize mobile I have no idea where they figure FB is worth that much. A 47x multiple on these guys is a joke.

This recent rally is akin to a dead cat bounce. Nothing in the market goes straight up or straight down. We'll be seeing sub-$15 soon.. Consider it a x-mas present.

Actually while we're on the topic.. the Dow is getting close to 14,000 again; our high from 2008. Don't be surprised to see a double top on the markets and then a sharp retrace afterward.

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Actually I think their recent approach to monetizing the mobile market is quite clever.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/18/facebook-mobile-ad-network/

It would be awesome if mobile developers could put targeted ads in their apps. I've tried Admob and Apple's iAds and there's literally no targeting. Two apps, one that focuses exclusively on pizza and another app that focuses exclusively on beer will show the same totally irrelevant ad for, say, some game app or "free text messages!".

how much of that may be due to not having enough relevant inventory? there's definitely a chicken/egg problem involved in targeted ad serving, but you'd have thought someone (apple?) might have been able to crack that nut by now.

In my particular case I don't think there was an inventory limitation issue. Reason is websites with Adsense addressing the same niche were serving extremely relevant and targeted ads while my Android app with Admob just gets junk. The obvious question is how does the Admob banner know about the app's contents? On the Admob site there's a note saying that the app's description will be used to target ads. However this doesn't seem to work or I'm misunderstanding. Either way my ads still suck.

>"Don't be surprised to see a double top on the markets and then a sharp retrace afterward."

The Fed is pumping money into the system, and has said they're going to do it indefinitely. The stock market is going up (at least in nominal terms).

At least, that's where my money is.

The market will continue to go up until it doesn't anymore.

Technical Analysis is your only friend.

Or to put it another way; if the fed is pumping money into the market it only makes it easier for others to exit.

As the saying goes, "Don't fight the Fed." Technical Analysis is voodoo and tea leaves.

Exit to where? Treasuries at all time low yields?

20% of people invest in stocks, and these people control almost 50% of wealth in America. A major goal of QE is to pump the market up to generate a wealth effect for these people, and (hopefully) pull the economy up with it. You can see that this happened by checking out the SPY chart from Nov. 2008 (QE1) onward.

As the other commenter noted, don't fight the Fed. Contrary to what you read in the popular media, they know what they are doing. If you hopped on board in '08, you got massive returns the past few years.

Should I consider this investment advice?

no.

The Dow could reach 18,000 in a year, or 5,000. FB has $billions to devise new profit streams.

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