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Comment by porkloin | Hacker News Reader

> which cuts down on the risk of a trump 2028 run

Ah, so I see we've entered the "normalizing the end of presidental term limits" part of the downward spiral. Maybe I need to accelerate my plans to get the fuck out of here.

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We're already past the point where there is no meaningful notion of "normal" that actually impacts what happens in government. Normalizing things doesn't matter that much if people care so little that they elect someone who's done what Trump did his first time.

I mean he's selling the hats and I've seen some talking heads on the news say they'll look at ways for him to do it. The two term limit is a kinda recent precedent all things considered, so...

I'm not sure how recent 1947 is? Kids would say it's 100 years ago, although the math obviously doesn't quite check out, we're getting there.

Although I'd say precedent goes back to George Washington refusing a 3rd term.

I'm not sure I'd consider the 22nd amendment "kinda recent precedent."

Are there any bookies for that? Seems like an easy way to get rich betting against that happening. If not, then I would instead wager the "market sentiment" is that Trump isn't actually serious about a 2028 bid or that he won't actually be able to overcome 22A.

Looks like there's about 1M in volume on Polymarket, so you could definitely dump a good bit of money there if you feel strongly:

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...

That's winner - any for "will he be on at least one state ballot?"

Trump doesn't have a very good ROI though... if I put $10k into a Trump "no" I'd only make $373 (or ~3.7%) ROI which is worse than CDs currently

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