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> For Nvidia: all it will take is for one smart grad student to find a better training algorithm to destroy 75% of their value.

I don't think so. We've already seen several generations of better training algorithms, but they all rely on CUDA, hence on NVidia.

For inference they already face competition: that deal OpenAI announced with AMD .. at a certain point it will be worth broadening away from CUDA.

Possibly, yes, but so far, it's barely noticeable, hardly a threat.

Yep, and don't forget about Mojo, which has the potential to make such a transition less painful.