The entrenchment via regulatory capture at the baseband level, with enormous state interplay with TSMC and Qualcomm (both economic and regulatory, both publicly known and classified), makes it impossible for a seriously independent actor to enter the market, exception _maybe_ an ubercapitalist like Musk or something.
I'm much more interested to see what happens when we achieve sufficient peace that industrial complexes are no longer the primary pillar of support for chip engineering and fabrication. I suspect that this will unlock the open development, up to the kernel and beyond, that we all hope for.