But given the amount of change, and competition, it is just as obvious that there will be many sub-market bubbles, of varying size, with unpredictable thresholds, timing and resolution.
And large companies, tech and non-tech (they all depend on information tech), will burn fortunes defensively. Which, if understood as a hedge isn't a bubble.
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For now, real demand for higher quality AI is insane. What will be interesting will be the dynamics as it passes the "average" person. (That will appear to happen at different times to different people, because these models are not ever going to be "just like us".)
I can imagine AI getting smarter fast enough to overshoot contemporary needs or ability to leverage. Needs and new leverage adoption are limited in rate of change by legal, political, social, economic, and adjacent/supporting tech adaptation rates. Any overshoot would completely commodify AI for as long as it took for use to catch up with potential.
That would resulting a temporary but still market-wide AI bubble burst. When nobody (or only a small minority) needs the best AI, and open source and low margin models will clean the clocks of high investment burning overshooters.
It is easy to underestimate how many small, unimportant, irrelevant, independent and easy adaptations that a new tech needs to deliver very different kinds of value, that are actually huge, important, inherent and non-obvious adaptations.
An analogy: Give a bright adaptable 10x (relative return/time vs. the norm) developer a billion dollars. See how long it takes them to re-orient themselves to their new scale and challenges, and get even 2x the returns on their new wealth relative to the norm. They may do much worse than 1x.
Achieving superintelligence "too fast" would have a similar effect. It will take almost every actor more time to adjust than we think. And many capable and historically successful enterprises, including some at the forefront of AI, will die of adaptation-overload shock.
From that viewpoint, OpenAI looks like they are doing the right things. Because they are going as vertical as they can, they will be confronting new-value-proposition frictions much earlier than others might. That is a very wise move given all the uncertainties. (Besides the obvious motivation of wanting it all.)