There is no 2. There is: 1. Scary events (plural) 2. Collapse
> What was the cause of the agricultural issues?
Weather. Possibly weather + water.
> How do we know there isn't a solution?
There is, we can't afford it: Hurricane-proof greenhouses for all crops everywhere.
> We do rationing, we curb new births,
How? Like managing COVID, only for food and sex this time? OMG! You'll have civil war in every city, town and village, which will cripple production even further => faster collapse.
> we find alternate ways to produce
Yeah, it's called subsistence agriculture [1] after 99% of the population dies of famine and crime (killed for their food).
> we optimize the system [...]
What system? There is no system anymore.
> we mobilize everything we have to solve the problem
Guns, we mobilize lots of guns. Those damned farmers won't work hard enough! We'll make them work!
Let me paint a more clear picture:
Adverse weather events => lots of crops destroyed => news inflated scary, as they usually are => huge price increase even before harvest time (of what remains) => hoarding => less food to buy, even higher prices => more news => desperate hoarding => even less food to buy => crime for food from warehouses/stores => even less food to buy => crime for hoarded food => people killed => more scary news (for real this time) => cities run out of food => mass migration from cities to farm country => pillaging of remaining crops, harvest by non-farmers in destructive/wasteful ways => even less food => even more desperate crime for food => mass death
Somewhere in that chain, the army intervenes, which hoard food for themselves first, are unable to manage efficient distribution of food to everyone, kill and get killed by hungry mobs => more death and news.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsistence_agriculture