I completely agree, obviously there are many complications and other concerns that could make it a much more difficult task.
I envision most of the difficulty that exceptional.io has encountered has been related to scalability. If I wanted a small, simple, self-hosted application with this functionality, it will probably be simpler. I'm not guaranteeing this, but I'm making a good estimate based on my experience creating similar web apps and utilities throughout my career—this ain't no blind shot in the dark guess.
You're right, being programmers does not make us magically able to understand details of software. But being good software engineers does involve a lot of exactly that skill. They are separate and distinct skills, but most great programmers I know are also great software engineers, and also great estimaters of project complexity. In my experience, I am as well (in fact I am generally better at estimating project architecture, complexity and time than I am at programming itself). This is where my response comes from—not simply being a programmer. Apologies for the confusion.