They moved the industry, that's for sure.
But at this point - there's nothing really THAT special about them compared to their competition.
But at this point - there's nothing really THAT special about them compared to their competition.
As a player for over 20 years this will be a core memory of OpenAI. Along with not living up to the name.
Let’s say Google or Anthropic release a new model that is significantly cheaper and/or smarter that an OpenAI one, nobody would stick to OpenAI. There is nearly zero cost to switching and it is a commodity product.
The AI market, much like the phone market, is not a winner take all. There's plenty of room for multiple $100B/$T companies to "win" together.
I don't think this is true over the short to mid term. Apple is a status symbol to the point that Android users are bullied over it in schools and dating apps. It would take years ti reverse the perception.
This is not at all how the consumer phone market works. Price and “smarts” are not only factor that goes into phone decisions. There are ecosystem factors & messaging networks that add significant friction to switching. The deeper you are into one system the harder it is to switch.
The human side is impossible to cost ahead of time because it’s unpredictable and when it goes bad, it goes very bad. It’s kind of like pork - you’ll likely be okay but if you’re not, you’re going to have a shitty time.
Anecdata but even in work environments I hear mostly complaints about having to use Copilot due to policy and preferring ChatGPT. Which still means Copilot is in a better place than Gemini, because as far as I can tell absolutely nobody even talks about that or uses it.