Search quality isn't what it used to be, but the inertia is still paying dividends. That same inertia also applied to Google ads.
I'm not nearly so convinced OpenAI has the same leg up with ChatGPT. ChatGPT hasn't become a verb quite like google or Kleenex, and it isn't an indispensable part of a product.
Most technical Google searches end up at win fourms or official Microsoft support site which is basically just telling you that running sfc scannow for everything is the fix.
Try searching for something technical which isn't MS-specific. That should be a more neutral test.
The only thing that has changed that status quo is the rise of audiovisual media and sites closing up so that Google can’t index them, which means web search lost a lot of relevance.
The pop of this bubble is going to be painful for a lot of people. Being too early to a market is just as bad as being too late, especially for something that can become a commodity due to a lack of moat.
Well, which is it? That AI is going to have huge demands for chips that it is going to get much bigger or is the bubble going to pop? You can’t have both.
My opinion is that local LLMs will do a bulk of the low value interference such as your personal life mundane tasks. But cloud AI will be reserved for work and for advanced research purposes.
https://cap.csail.mit.edu/death-moores-law-what-it-means-and...
And there are innovations that will continue the scaling that Moore's law predicts. Take die stacking as an example. Even Intel had internal studies 20 years ago that showed there are significant performance and power improvements to be had in CPU cores by using 2 layers of transistors. AMD's X3D CPUs are now using technology that can stack extra dies onto a base die, but they're using it in the most basic of ways (only for cache). Going beyond cache to logic, die stacking allows reductions of wire length because more transisters with more layers of metal fit in a smaller space. That in turn improves performance and reduces power consumption.
The semiconductor industry isn't out of tricks just yet. There are still plenty of improvements coming in the next decade, and those improvements will benefit AI workloads far more than traditional CPUs.
Moore's so-called "law" hasn't been true for years.
Chinese AI defeated American companies because they spent effort to optimize the software.
From what I understand he was the only one crazy enough to demand hundreds of GPUs for months to get ChatGPT going. Which at the time sounded crazy.
So yeah Sam is the guy with the guts and vision to stay ahead.
note that menlo is invested in anthropic, but still..
You might see Sam as a Midas who can turn anything into gold. But history shows that very few people sustain that pattern.