But is it a bit like a game of musical chairs?
At some point the AI becomes good enough, and if you're not sitting in a chair at the time, you're not going to be the next Google.
At some point the AI becomes good enough, and if you're not sitting in a chair at the time, you're not going to be the next Google.
In practice that hasn't borne out. You can download and run open weight models now that are spitting distance to state-of-the-art, and open weight models are at best a few months behind the proprietary stuff.
And even within the realm of proprietary models no player can maintain a lead. Any advances are rapidly matched by the other players.
More likely at some point the AI becomes "good enough"... and every single player will also get a "good enough" AI shortly thereafter. There doesn't seem like there's a scenario where any player can afford to stop setting cash on fire and start making money.