Dotcom boom made all kinds of predictions about Web usage. That decade plus later turned out to be true. But at the time the companies got way ahead of consumer adoption.
Specific to AI copilots. We currently are building hundreds that nobody will use for every one success.
Ad hominem.
> ignores lagging enterprise procurement cycles
Time is long gone for that, even for most bureaucratic orgs.
> rapid glide path of unit economics as models, inference, and hardware efficiency improve
Conjecture. We don't know if we can scale up effectively. We are hitting limits of technology and energy already
> Habit formation is the moat
Yes and no. GenAI tools are useful if done right, but they have not been what they were made out to be, and they do not seem to be getting better as quickly as I like. The most useful tool so far is copilot auto-complete, but its value is limited for experienced devs. If its price increased 10x tomorow, I would cancel our subscription.
> We’re not watching a bubble pop; we’re watching infrastructure being laid for the next decade of products.
How much money are you risking right now? Or is it different this time?
Well, at least you're honest about it.