Guaranteed there are hedge funds with language models that can predict time series. Alot of really good time series research has never been published, and is locked in some guys head that lives in a 20 million dollar apartment in NYC
The actual algorithms for predicting price movement were fairly simplistic, most work was around strategies for dealing with overfitting and how to execute the trades. Accuracy was around 51-55% (a bit better than coin toss) so it was a big challenge to actually execute the trades and still make a profit after fees and other nonsense. Finding alpha is what ML is used for but that’s just the first step.
PyTorch is no secret either yet…
The point I’m making is there are models, based on database stream data, that you’ll never get access to even if you had $100m dollars.
Especially when you throw noisy subjective context at it.
You can't tell a numbers only model "ok, with this data, but now you know all the tomatoes in the world have gone rotten and the market doesn't know it yet, what's the best move?" You can use an LLM model like that, however, and with RL, which allows you to branch and layer strategies dependent on dynamic conditions and private data, for arbitrary outcomes. Deploy such a model at scale and run tens of thousands of simulations, iterating through different scenarios, and you can start to apply confidence metrics and complex multiple-degree-of-separation strategies to exploit arbitrage opportunities.
Any one of the big labs could do something like this, including modeling people, demographic samples, distributions of psychological profiles, cultural and current events, and they'd have a manipulation engine to tell them exactly who, when, and where to invest, candidates to support, messages to push and publish.
The fundamental measures of intelligence are how far into the future a system can predict across which domains. The broader the domains and farther into the future, the more intelligence, and things like this push the boundaries.
We should probably get around to doing a digital bill of rights, but I suspect it's too late already anyway, and we're full steam ahead to snow crash territory.