Taiwan won't chip in to US effort to make half its own processors
theregister.com
theregister.com
Trump hails himself as a negotiating genius, so what am I missing here?
- Taiwan makes the bulk of the world's processors
- Building a new fab facility is both a money and time-consuming endeavor. Ironically, Trump's tariffs are destabilizing the global economy making such investments even less likely
- The demand for processors is relatively inelastic. The consumers will largely "eat" the cost increases due to tariffs
- The last point means Taiwan is relatively unharmed by the tariffs
Given this, what is Taiwan's motivation to capitulate to Trump's demands? From where I stand Taiwan appears to be holding all the cards and Trump has nothing - yet Trump somehow thinks he's going to use nothing to strong-arm a deal? Is this what everyone else sees or am I missing something?
America relies on Taiwan for more than just advanced-node semiconductors. The island is the linchpin in the US's island chain strategy for the Pacific theater.
Abandoning Taiwan to the CPC would have a domino effect on US relations with the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, etc.; let China run wild in the US backyard and gain a monopoly on some critical supply chains while holding others in peril; and is effectively tantamount to ceding the Pacific to China without a fight.
The US abandoning Taiwan is simply not an option and Taiwan knows it.
China owns half Trump's cabinet, but Xi's always wanted to invade Taiwan regardless of the consequences and this isn't a game he can win.
Doubties. ROC's strategy right now appears to basically be: Give PRC no good reason to invade and lots of good reasons not to.
Anyway PLA's invasion preparations are already nearly ripe and MSS would almost certainly detect nuclear weapons or delivery systems development. Then it's an easy and semi-legitimate casus belli and invasion is an urgent NatSec imperative before ROC manages breakout.