As an Indian, I would dispute that. When I look back at what we were as a country, when we became independent, to what we are today, our achievements are really astounding.
Don't. It's good for us that they overestimate China and underestimate us. For the next couple decades, we need breathing room to develop; why would you destroy that space by drawing attention to yourself?
Everybody and everything is growing, even North Korea in some aspects is. Thats called a progress and nobody interacting with rest of the world can escape that.
What is unfortunately true about India, and many other similar places is the potential of the country and the people and reality where they got and how far they can reach, given their own limitations.
From what I've seen, the gap (potential vs reality) is huge compared to western standards, and I don't see an easy way to push through that ceiling. Society isn't fair, its everybody for themselves. Castes are very much a thing still, absolutely horrible and deplorable thing (while this will be read mostly by brahmins or rich merchant castes who rarely see an issue there, so I don't expect much sympathy here). Corruption is abysmal. Women and minority rights are questionable at best.
No doubt great and important things will improve in upcoming decades. But in 21st century India will not resemble ie western Europe in any meaningful way, I just don't see a way. Real India is not some Bangalore or Pune bubble, its very opposite of it.
And China... its doing its own superpower things. I get why US is scared of prospect of having an actually worthy peer for a change with very different values, but thats not a main concern for Europe. putin and his FUBAR russia is and will be, all focus and energy goes there as it should. Unless US is going to properly help with that instead of licking various orifices of your own sworn enemy while it spits on you, we leave China to you guys (which just wants to sell their cheap EVs and other stuff here, hardly an evil plan we should lose sleep about right now).
> India is the world's largest provider of generic medicines by volume, with a 20% share of total global pharmaceutical exports. It is also the largest vaccine supplier in the world by volume, accounting for more than 60% of all vaccines manufactured in the world.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmaceutical_industry_in_I...
This I am less certain on, but I believe there is a fairly robust space program (not many countries have that). I’m sure there is more.
In Europe you very rarely see consumer goods labelled "Made in USA" (although we will frequently see products that are "Made in India"), yet the US is still an economic powerhouse because its strengths are in services, tech, finance, aerospace, and defence rather than mass-market manufacturing.
India is similar with most of its global impact through IT, software, generic pharmaceuticals, and space tech. Its the 4th largest economy in the world, and among the fastest growing - potentially surpassing Germany for 3rd place by 2030.
India is also the 2nd largest exporter of food in the world, and among the largest textile exporters (clothing, etc) - but for some reason you wanted to exclude commodities.
I'm hopeful for India's future and they're on the right track, but currently, they're punching well below their weight. Germany is punching well above theirs. But investment from companies like Apple shows that India has what it needs to become the next China (or at the very least, next Vietnam). Nigeria seems to lack similar investment.
Let's see India's GDP per capita.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_North_Kor...
Is it safe to say North Korea is a world leader? If your method is anything to go by, yes. Does North Korea dominate India in its world leadership? Quite likely!
It's not comparable to the broad based productivity gains which happened in China or the UK across every industry as they developed, from agriculture to manufacturing to services. Instead it's much more like the Norwegian or Saudi hydrocarbon economies but with human capital exports.
That's simply not true.
India is making steel, pharmaceuticals, textiles, cars, movies, you name it.
India
* Productive Capacities Index (PCI, 2022): 45.3 (108th out of 194)
* Economic Complexity Index (ECI, 2023): 0.60 (41st out of 132)
* Global Economic Diversification Index (EDI, latest): 111.51
* Human Development Index (HDI, 2023): 0.685 (130th out of 193)
Thailand
* Productive Capacities Index (PCI, 2022): 51.6 (66th out of 194)
* Economic Complexity Index (ECI, 2023): 0.96 (29th out of 132)
* Global Economic Diversification Index (EDI, latest): 108.99 (~27th out of 115)
* Human Development Index (HDI, 2023): 0.798 (77th out of 193)
China
* Productive Capacities Index (PCI, 2022): 60.7 (26th out of 194)
* Economic Complexity Index (ECI, 2023): 1.14 (22nd out of 132)
* Global Economic Diversification Index (EDI, latest): 146.20 (top 3)
* Human Development Index (HDI, 2023): 0.797 (78th out of 193)BTW, while I would call the US or EU better, both have very significant governance issues that they need to work on. This shouldn't be seen as a game of who is better it should be seen as a game of how can I improve, looking at others only to see what areas they are better you can copy, and what areas they are worse you can avoid.
Since I live in the US that is where I focus most of my efforts, and I'm constantly stopped by people who have their heart in the right place but are doing something that because of complex factors they refuse to acknowledge is worse than what we have now. I'm also constantly being informed of something I didn't think of and having to readjust what I advocate for. If you are not in the same situation you are making things worse!
(Wait this is still the rodney brooks discussion!?)
I grew up in the USA and the changes in India even in the last 10 years has been completely astounding. For example I’m from Hyderabad and some of things changes I see: A national freeway that didn’t exist 10 years ago, a metro that covers most of the core of the city, skyscrapers, trains that now ship containers instead of boxcars, massive power plants that have recently been built.
Is India perfect? No. It still has a hierarchical society, sectarianism is still pretty acute, like everywhere else in the world India’s fertility rate has dropped off a cliff, and traffic in Hyderabad proper is a nightmare.
But culturally the submissive Indian mindset of my youth is largely gone. The millennial India is entrepreneurial and everyone is looking to get ahead. The next 20 years of India will be amazing at which point a lot of the issues of low fertility rates will start affecting India as well. Lastly, I think India really only has capacity to send a sizable amount of its citizens overseas only for the next 5 years or so at which point migration out of India will largely subside.
It's amazing when people flag this as a bad thing when it's undoubtedly a key component of getting places to prosperity in the first place. Got to get people away from being starvation-limited.
> I think India really only has capacity to send a sizable amount of its citizens overseas only for the next 5 years or so at which point migration out of India will largely subside.
That's how you can tell a country is ""winning"" in the international rankings, when more people want to move in than move out.
Exponentially falling fertility rates can create dynamics which can be destructive in its own right. As with other complex phenomena it would be for example foolish to rapidly cool the earth's climate. Stability is the key, here. Right now India is just below replacement which short to mid-term looks very promising but will it stabilize? Looking at worldwide trends I very much doubt that. A growing economy needs some demographical stability so coming from a long-term view fertility dropping off a cliff, now, could be bad news later (in one, two generations).
Turning some knobs one way or the other does not produce linear results, quite the opposite, there are thresholds, there is criticality. To draw on another more time compressed analogy here: I guess some operators thought back then: What could go possibly wrong by running a nuclear reactor (RBMK) at safer lower powers?
The baby boom and a couple previous generations in the US is also associated with getting to high prosperity and high fertility. This part of your thesis is debunked and thus your whole argument falls apart.
There are large countries in Africa that are undergoing fast development though, Kenya for example.
Additionally, if you believe Nigeria has a near zero chance at good governance, then I suspect you have not read very much history or anthropology. Every instance of civilizational development looks pretty much impossible, and yet “good governance” emerges over and over again. The story of humanity is one of surprising social innovation, and I would never count Nigeria out.
Time is not a linear function; creation and decay are not a normalized process. A large number of people can change inductive truism.